Although the Liberals won four more seats than Labor at the Tasmanian election, it’s easier for Labor to form a government. Federal polls from Morgan and Essential are also covered.

The final seat outcome for the July 19 Tasmanian state election is 14 Liberals out of 35 (steady since the March 2024 election), ten Labor (steady), five Greens (steady), five independents (up two), one Shooter, Fisher and Farmer (up one) and zero Jacqui Lambie Network (down three). The JLN did not contest this election. It’s the first time the Shooters have won a seat in a Tasmanian election.

Four of the independents (Kristie Johnston, Craig Garland, Peter George and David O'Byrne) are regarded as left-leaning, while George Razay is a centrist but has left-leaning policies. Razay stood in Bass at the 2025 federal election and his voters’ preferences favoured Labor by 57–43 over the Liberals.

Counting Labor, the Greens and four independents as left and the Liberals and Shooters as right gives the left a 19–15 seat lead over the right with one for Razay. So even though the Liberals won four more seats and 14% more statewide votes than Labor, it’s easier for Labor to cobble together a government than the Liberals.

A Tasmanian EMRS poll, conducted July 28–31 from a sample of 601, had 44% favouring the formation of a Liberal government to 38% for a Labor government. By 56–25, respondents thought Labor governing with Greens support constituted a “deal”.

Liberal leader and premier Jeremy Rockliff was at 9 net favourable, Labor leader Dean........

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