Anthony Albanese is not always direct. On Sunday, though, his directness was matched only by his accuracy. On climate policy, he said, the Coalition had become a “rabble and clown show”.

And so the most important thing to say is this: obviously, the Coalition division over climate – and the muddy, meaningless position the opposition formally agreed on Sunday – is mostly a problem for the Coalition. Its policy denies reality, all but denies the threat of climate change, bypasses economics and ignores the desires of both the energy sector and the voters the Coalition needs to win over at elections.

Illustration by Jozsef Benke Credit:

Here’s what Labor MPs licking their lips should keep in mind though: the last two times we saw the Liberals implode like this, the leaders who took over ended up beating Labor at elections. Tony Abbott replaced Malcolm Turnbull in 2009, almost beat Labor at the next election and did so at the election after that. Scott Morrison replaced Turnbull in 2018 and won an election just nine months later.

Those situations were not exactly alike. But zooming in on Abbott’s experience should remind us of a central political law: oppositions don’t win elections – governments lose them.

In other words, for all the attention the Coalition is (justifiably) getting right now, what matters most over the next few years is what Labor does. That’s true about the climate itself – because Labor is in power. And it’s true on the politics, as well. And with that in mind, the current Liberal implosion – as perverse as this may seem – poses two threats to Labor.

The first is........

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