It’s tricky to rank the relative power of countries. Until they go to war with each other.

For instance, Russia was always rated as vastly superior to Ukraine. The year before its all-out invasion in 2022, the annual review by Global Firepower rated Russia as the world’s No.2 military power and Ukraine at a distant No.25.

The Pentagon assessed that Moscow would defeat Kyiv in just three days. But today “Russia holds a sizable advantage over Ukraine on troop numbers and weaponry, yet the two sides have fought to a standstill”, as the Council on Foreign Relations points out.

Illustration by Dionne GainCredit:

It’s blindingly obvious that static comparisons of power miss something essential.

Similarly, US President Donald Trump went into his trade war against China brimful of confidence that the US held the advantage: “They have some cards,” he said in August. “We have incredible cards. But I don’t want to play those cards. If I did, that would destroy China.”

When Xi Jinping announced comprehensive export controls on its rare earths last week, Trump, stunned, called it “impossible”. He responded in three phases. First was his kneejerk threat to put tariffs of 100 per cent on all Chinese imports to the US.

Second. When Wall Street sold off sharply in anticipation of brutal damage to the US economy, Trump relented: “Don’t worry, it will all be fine!” he wrote. The time elapsed between his thrust and withdrawal? 48 hours.

“Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment.” A bad moment? Xi has spent a decade preparing China to be able to survive wartime isolation.........

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