Suggesting that fossil fuels will stay around for a long time remains taboo in the energy debate. In climate change gatherings, the world has agreed to “consign coal to history” and “transition away” from oil and natural gas.

It has signalled, too, “the beginning of the end” of the fossil-fuel era and a “swift” transition to renewables.

That’s all very well meaning, but there’s a problem: With apologies to Margaret Thatcher, fossil fuels are not for turning.

The main long-term influence is the global push to reduce carbon emissions.Credit: AP

Just two years ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) unequivocally said that fossil-fuel demand would peak before the end of this decade. It was a black-and-white statement that left no wiggle room.

“The world is on the cusp of a historic turning point,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said at the time, adding: “This is the first time that a peak in demand is visible for each fuel this decade — earlier than many people anticipated.”

The message won accolades from green campaigners and shocked the energy establishment. But it was premature, in part because it didn’t anticipate an obvious flaw: governments backpedalling on their clean-energy commitments.

Thus, the IEA is in retreat. The agency, whose analysis is closely followed, isn’t so sure any more about a peak. Maybe coal will reach a zenith, but oil may not, and gas certainly won’t. And when, and if, fossil-fuel demand eventually tops out, it will do so at a higher level than the agency........

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