If economists were making market forecasts for this AFL season, they would note that the round one MCG crowds, which contribute heavily to the club and league coffers, were “soft” and that they cannot expect the kind of records and bonanzas of the recent past given the underlying conditions of certain clubs.

Essendon v Hawthorn was as hyped as any clash between the foes for two decades, on the back of Zach Merrett’s failed escape to the hated Hawks. The Bombers expected 80,000 to show up, as did the AFL. The turnout was a subdued 71,384, and a sizeable portion of them were at Richmond or Jolimont stations – or scurrying away to find refuge in a Richmond pub – while “We’re a happy team at Hawthorn” blared around the MCG.

Zach Merrett and the Bombers leave the field after the loss against the Hawks.Credit: Getty Images

Carlton v Richmond held less box office promise, but it had drawn 80,000 last year when the Tigers put Carlton’s season into instant turbulence. This game, no longer holding the prime slot of the season opener, drew 74,313.

Collingwood v Adelaide attracted 62,482, an excellent crowd for a Melbourne club against a non-Victorian. But it was slightly down on what the Magpies pulled for matches against the Crows in both 2024 and 2025 (67,697).

The Essendon and Carlton home games contained two themes that warrant exploration.

The first is that both marque events were designated as “fully ticketed”, which means that members of the clubs without a seasonal reserved seat had to book a ticket at the cost of $13, just to be assured of a seat. They could pay more if they wanted a superior vantage.

Essendon and/or the AFL were justified on making that game fully ticketed, based on Merrett. But it is reasonable to ask whether the ticketing slug, at a time when the cost of living remains challenging, acted as a disincentive for fans. Ditto for Carlton and Richmond, since the mid-week forecast was only for 72-74,000 from the AFL.

But the more pertinent and worrisome explanation for the soft crowds in those games is that Carlton and Essendon fans are tiring of prolonged failure this century – that even the commendable stickiness of the Bombers faithful is slowly loosening – and that Richmond people simply recognise the reality of a list reconstruction that will take much longer than the $100 million bricks and mortar version undertaken at Punt Rd.

© The Age