We all know it’s nearly impossible to win a premiership from outside the top four.

Of the 117 title winners since 1908, 115 of them have done so after finishing in the first four by the end of the regular season.

Top four race: Reece Walsh and Nathan Cleary.Credit: Graphic: Monique Westermann

Only Canterbury from sixth place in 1995, and Brisbane from fifth in 1993 have managed the near impossible.

History has shown it’s just too hard to keep that winning run going when you’re up against elite teams in must-win finals, which makes this year’s top-four race as critical as ever.

The Warriors have had a great resurgence to sit fourth, and are four competition points clear of the Broncos in fifth place. They’ve got a great run home, too, where they play just one top-four side (Canterbury) and one top-eight rival (the Dolphins).

But to lose halfback Luke Metcalf on top of forward Mitch Barnett going down with an ACL rupture is just too much, and I think they’ll struggle to keep Brisbane at bay.

The Broncos have a good run home, but do play the Storm twice after facing the Bulldogs on Friday night. I think that round 27 game against Melbourne will decide whether they finish top four and, historically, stay in with a premiership shot.

Penrith will basically start their finals campaign in mid-August. I can’t see them making the top four even though they’re one competition point behind the Broncos. Their run from round 24 to 26, where they face Melbourne, Canberra and Canterbury, is just too tough. Then they’ll likely be playing sudden death semi-finals as well.

The toll of........

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