Putin is running out of time and money

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The four-year stalemate in Ukraine has suddenly broken. For the first time in modern memory, Russia is having to import fuel to keep its economy and society afloat.

The speed of events is extraordinarily rapid and portends a tectonic shift in the global balance of power, dramatically improving the strategic fortunes of Europe.

Ukraine’s drone force of “Magyar’s Birds” has struck 30 oil and gas tankers in the Black Sea region since Wednesday. It claims to have hit 147 vessels linked to Russia in 10 days, effectively closing the Sea of Azov and tightening the blockade of the Crimean Peninsula.

It is attacking refineries at will, continuously, from St Petersburg to Siberia, crippling Russia’s biggest plant some 2250 kilometres into the interior at Omsk. The range has jumped fivefold since early last year. “Russia no longer has a safe rear, and distance is no longer protection,” said Sergiy Makogon, from the Centre for European Policy Analysis.

Ukraine’s hi-tech counter-punch has echoes of the final months of the First World War when Allied armour smashed through the trenches, exploiting the breakdown on the German home front already well underway.

Russia hits Ukraine with most ballistic missiles in any attack since start of war, Kyiv says

“The Ukrainians have figured out how to target the refraction facilities of the plants,” said Professor Alan Riley, an energy expert at the Atlantic Council and an adviser to the Ukrainian military.

“Once you take out the most complex parts of the refinery, replacements have to come mostly from China. That can take a year or 18 months.

“Russia’s air defences are around Moscow and St Petersburg, and they are designed to intercept missiles, not mass drone attacks. Refineries around the country are basically undefended,” he said. Private companies are desperately putting up wire mesh to defend their plants, sauve qui peut.

“The attacks on coastal........

© The Age