TORONTO – Predicting free agency is never easy, especially in a year where the off-season’s expected to be interrupted by a work stoppage and a new collective bargaining agreement.

But why let that stop us from trying? As MLB’s off-season gets started, it’s time to share some predictions for the contracts the top 50 free agents will secure this off-season.

First, a couple caveats. For starters, remember that these are predictions rather than recommendations. And while I took this exercise seriously and spoke with people in the industry before putting these numbers down, it’s mainly meant to be a fun way to look ahead. Having spent years covering contracts closely as a writer at MLB Trade Rumors, I know how humbling these predictions can be. If I get even a handful of these exactly right, I’ll take it.

But again, why let that stop us? 

Big picture, the free agent class appears weaker than usual. Combined with the uncertainty over the new CBA, I predict that we’ll see fewer long-term deals than we did a year ago. It stands to reason that teams will shy away from extremely long-term commitments where possible, and this class isn’t so tempting that teams will throw money around in spite of themselves.

Given those factors, I’m forecasting slightly less spending overall – a total of $2.55 billion for the top 50 players compared to $2.66 billion for the top 50 last year. Within that, there should be plenty of shorter-term commitments at reasonably high AAVs, including a slight uptick in two-year deals. And I anticipate lots of spending on relievers.

Yet I'm forecasting just 16 deals of three years or more, down from 20 a year ago and just six deals of $100 million, down from nine a year ago. Without any further preamble, let’s get to the players:

Seven years, $357 million ($51 million AAV) with an opt-out after 2029

Skubal is well positioned to set a new record for pitchers, surpassing Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325 million deal and Gerrit Cole’s $324 million contract. A player option would sweeten this for Skubal, who should land the biggest contract of the off-season by a significant margin. I debated going with a longer deal at a lower AAV, but ultimately settled on seven years at a massive annual number with the Mets seen by many as frontrunners.

2. RHP Freddy Peralta

Five years, $140 million ($28 million........

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