Last year, in response to a suicide bombing on a convoy of paramilitary forces in Indian Administered Jammu & Kashmir, India carried out the its first airstrike on Pakistan-proper since 1971 in Balakot, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In reassessing the crisis, the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) Balakot strike can be viewed as an example of the offense-defense imbalance contributing to strategic miscalculation of the adversary’s actual and perceived military capabilities. In the case of Balakot, India underestimated the will and the ability of Pakistan’s armed forces to defend the country and give a matching response to any act of aggression, and restore the status quo ante. Although ultimately a self contained crisis, it was fraught with the risk of inadvertent (conventional) escalation.

Conventional Acquisitions post-Kargil

Although the IAF’s February 26 strike was triggered by a suicide attack on Indian soldiers in Pulwama, India’s risk acceptance leading to kinetic action against Pakistan was also rooted in events and developments of the past two decades. The first was when the IAF went largely unchallenged by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) during the Kargil conflict in 1999, which also did not retaliate a month later after India’s downing of a Pakistan Navy’s Atlantique surveillance aircraft along the international border. Although each side had competing narratives of the event, Pakistan maintained that the unarmed aircraft was in Pakistani airspace — as evidenced by the debris found on the Pakistan side of the border. The Kargil conflict was followed by the induction of multiple SU-30MKI aircraft in the IAF starting in 2002, and the addition of new aircraft and air defense systems by both the IAF and Indian Army.

In reassessing the crisis, the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) Balakot strike can be viewed as an example of the offense-defense imbalance contributing to strategic miscalculation of the adversary’s actual and perceived military capabilities.

Since Kargil, India has incorporated a plethora of weapon systems and platforms contributing to operational and logistical complexity with weaknesses in datalinks across various and platforms. Despite ongoing challenges and claims of aging equipment, India’s overall military modernization and buildup during the past two decades witnessed a significant increase in conventional military supplies from major weapons suppliers including the United States, Russia, Israel, and France. This coupled with an growing defense budget enabled India to become the second largest arms importer from 2015 to 2019.

Although Pakistan’s aircraft acquisitions suffered a setback following U.S. termination of military and economic aid over Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program in 1990 under the Pressler Amendment, the PAF acquired 18 F-16 Block 52 C/D aircraft starting in 2006 while continuing the mid-life upgrade of the PAF’s existing F-16 fleet and most significantly the steady success of the JF-17 Thunder program — jointly developed by China and Pakistan — continued thorough the post 1998 period. Pakistan has also raised its Airborne Early Warning and Control System (AWACS) fleet with support from China and Sweden and added electronic warfare platforms to its inventory.

Introduction of these systems has strengthened Pakistan’s command and control capabilities and its ability to respond to potential air attacks. The PAF has also focused on

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