Last month, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, and a team of European Union (EU) Commissioners was on an official visit to India. The delegation, comprising 22 out of the 27 members of the EU College of Commissioners, was unprecedented in scale and scope, with about 20 meetings taking place across different sectors. As the first foreign trip of the newly formed Commission, this was meant to be a signal from the EU of its serious commitment to bolstering the strategic partnership with India, which is up for formal renewal in 2025. Particularly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the recent shocks to the transatlantic alliance due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s statements and policies, von der Leyen and the EU’s geostrategic outlook has shifted and India’s importance strengthened.

For India, the stakes are also high. The EU as a bloc is India’s largest trading partner, accounting for €124 billion (or approximately USD 133.55 billion) of trade in goods in 2023, which amounts to 12.2 percent of total Indian trade. Trade in services has almost doubled in the space of 3 years. At the same time, India is the EU’s ninth largest trading partner, accounting for only 2.2 percent of the bloc’s trade, highlighting the capacity for deeper trade relations. Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar made a similar case at the recent Raisina Dialogue, warning that in a more hostile and competitive world, trade will increasingly happen between partners and called the EU, the United Kingdom, and the United States India’s “growth markets.” “These are our technology partners. This is where people go for education. This is where people go for tourism. These are, in many ways, our connectivity partners. They are our strategic partners,” Jaishankar stressed.

With a heavy dose of realism infusing positions on both sides, the question remains: will the EU-India relationship be realigned and reimagined in 2025 and if so, how? The EU has initiated a process of realignment, specifically in terms of its collective defense and security arrangements and capabilities. This creates new opportunities not only for deepening defense ties with India, but also cooperation in sectors such as cyber security and space. However, two aspects are likely to continue generating uncertainty in this relationship: the EU’s relationship with China and India’s relationship with Russia.

As the first foreign trip of the newly formed Commission, this was meant to be a signal from the EU of its serious commitment to bolstering the strategic partnership with India, which is up for formal renewal in 2025. Particularly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and […] U.S. President Donald Trump’s statements and policies, von der Leyen and the EU’s geostrategic outlook has shifted and India’s importance strengthened.

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