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Over the past few days, a long-shot request for the Supreme Court to overturn marriage equality has snowballed into a major news story. Influential media outlets have covered it closely, and prominent politicians have seized upon it to warn that same-sex marriage is still under attack. It is certainly true that no one should take this hard-won right for granted. But any panic about this particular challenge—brought by former Kentucky clerk Kim Davis—is unwarranted. There is essentially no chance that the court will entertain Davis’ plea to abolish gay people’s constitutional right to marry; the odds round down to zero. And although apprehension about the justices’ hostility toward LGBTQ equality is justified, marriage does not yet appear to be in their crosshairs.

The most important thing to understand about Davis’ appeal is that it has a small likelihood of being taken up in the first place. Her lawyers have merely asked the court to consider it, filing what’s known as a petition for certiorari. (They did so in July, and it’s unclear why the request is garnering so much attention now.) SCOTUS receives about 8,000 of these petitions every year and grants just a tiny number of them—in recent years, fewer than 70. Anyone can ask the court to hear their appeal. And while it is technically accurate to say that the justices will consider her request, that does not mean they will resolve it on the merits. It simply indicates that they will have the opportunity to take it up, an opportunity that they are unlikely to accept.

Why? Most obviously, Davis’ petition does not center on the question of marriage equality. It stems from a long-running battle over her refusal to grant a marriage license to a same-sex couple........

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