The prospects for an end to the Ukraine War have never been so good despite continuing if dwindling Western European attempts to play spoiler, and with the exception, of course, of the almost-peace of spring 2022 that the West sabotaged. Since then, there’s been much water – or rather blood – under that bridge not crossed.

Now there is a real chance that the presidents of Russia and the US, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, will compel – “persuade,” if you wish – both the Zelensky regime in Kiev and its remaining backers in NATO-EU Europe to return to reality: namely, to accept, if tacitly, that Russia is winning the war on the ground and that a later peace will only bring further unnecessary losses for Ukraine and its Western users.

Nothing, except death, is certain until it is in the past. This peace is still in the – hopefully near – future. Yet we can already think about its consequences. Regarding the 32 European countries that are either in NATO, the EU, or both, this is usually done with an eye to military posture, foreign policy, and the economy (oddly enough, in that order). How long, for instance, will it take for hysterical predictions of a Russian attack on at least the Baltics if not Warsaw, Berlin, and – who knows – Luxembourg, to wear off? What will happen to the new monster-debt-driven militarism? Will the NATO-EU Europeans ever be sensible enough again to rediscover diplomacy and cooperation with Russia? If so, when? Before or after they finally collapse under the weight of energy prices, deindustrialization, and public debt?

The answer to all questions above will depend on how the domestic politics of key European states develop. In that respect, the single most important question is about the future of Europe’s currently rising, even surging New Right (an umbrella term for parties that are commonly labeled, for instance, “right-populist,” “hard right,” or “far right”). But this logic also works the other way around. If the Ukraine War ends mostly on Moscow’s terms, as now supported even by Washington, this peace will inevitably influence politics inside NATO-EU Europe and in particular the chances of the New Right.

The New Right advance is especially significant in three key countries: France, Germany, and Great Britain. They have in common that their respective New Right parties – Rassemblement National (RN), Reform UK, and Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) – are leading national polls. While this is similar to several other European states, such as Spain and Austria, the British, French, and German cases are special because of their economic and political weight.

The New Right surge is by no means new. It has been building for about two decades now, and for some observers, its triumph is already an accomplished fact: It was last........

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