Given the cascade of domestic and international events over the past few weeks, it’s almost hard to remember the drama and controversy that surrounded passage of the reconciliation package dubbed the Big Beautiful Bill Act. Almost.

I say that because one of its critical elements, the extension of the 2017 tax cuts for individuals, was then and remains today the most disputed, most misreported and most misunderstood. It will play a key role in defining how the electorate views the reconciliation bill. 

These across-the-board tax cuts were going to expire at the end of this year, and if that had happened, most people in the country would have seen their taxes go up. Yet sadly, a kind of cynicism has settled over many voters who remain unconvinced of almost anything they hear from politicians and the media these days.

Part of the problem today is that people didn’t believe the tax cuts back in 2017. 

Republicans and Trump passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, but failed to close the deal with voters who didn’t believe the broad-based cuts would apply to them.

In our 2018 postelection analysis, the Winston Group wrote: “More people believed the bill would not lower taxes for “people like them” 36-42 (will-will not). Voters believed the tax cut bill reduced rates for corporations and the wealthy (67-17 believe-do not believe) but not that it would reduce rates for everyone (32-50 believe-not believe). Independents were less likely to believe it reduced rates for everyone (27-51).” 

Our analysis continued: “Clearly, the electorate was not aware of the basic elements of the bill, and naturally as a result, were unaware of the potential benefits........

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