The public's beliefs about crime prevention are often misguided.

The statistics on the surge in crime during the post-COVID years may surprise you.

The attribution bias error helps explain misjudgments about crime and punishment.

Given the tone of network and cable news coverage, it might come as a surprise to learn that crime in the United States—including violent crime—has declined in the post-COVID era. According to FBI statistics, violent crime in 2024 fell to its lowest level since 1969. The picture appeared even more encouraging in 2025, when the nation’s murder rate dropped by roughly 20%, accompanied by declines across other major crime categories.

These developments are particularly striking given another trend of the past several years: since 2019 and the protests following George Floyd’s death, police departments nationwide have, on average, shrunk by roughly 6%.

Possible Explanations for Crime Decline

Researchers have proposed several explanations for this decline. The most persuasive—widely discussed among legal scholars and policy analysts—is that the reduction in crime rates significantly resulted from the massive post-pandemic investments in local governments made through the Biden administration’s American Rescue Plan Act, infrastructure funding, and other community-based programs. These federal investments in prevention, services, and local infrastructure appear to have yielded significant social dividends.

Consider Baltimore, for instance. City officials used federal funding to launch an outreach initiative targeting a group of young men believed to be trapped in cycles of retaliatory violence and, therefore, at high risk of committing serious crimes. About 400 letters were sent to individuals identified through data analysis as part of this high-risk group; 360 responded and were offered various forms of support, guidance, and........

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