13 Days that Nearly Ended the World
High-stakes conflict triggers fight-or-flight, reducing rational decision-making.
Shared goals reduce conflict by shifting focus from "me vs. you" to "us vs. the problem."
Using objective criteria leads to fairer, less emotional negotiations.
The best agreements allow both sides to maintain dignity and save face.
In 1962, the world came closer to global human annihilation than perhaps ever before or since. In October of that year, U.S. intelligence discovered nuclear missiles in Cuba. Supplied by the Soviet Union, the missiles could reach the U.S. within minutes and cause worldwide destruction.
President John F. Kennedy demanded their removal. The Soviets countered that the U.S. had missiles in Turkey capable of reaching them. Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev demanded we remove ours; Kennedy declined, and a tense stalemate began.
For 13 days, the U.S. surrounded Cuba to prevent additional weapons from arriving. Tensions were high, and trust between the U.S., Cuba, and the Soviet Union was low.
Ultimately, Khrushchev and Kennedy reached a (partly secret) agreement. Publicly, the Soviets agreed to pull their missiles from Cuba in exchange for a U.S. promise not to invade. Privately, Kennedy agreed to remove U.S. missiles from Turkey. This allowed both sides to de-escalate while still preserving public strength.
But that’s not the end of the story.
Years later, at a 2002 conference in Havana, we learned just how close we had come to catastrophe.
During the standoff, a Soviet submarine (B-59) was operating near Cuba, cut off from communication with Moscow. Believing war may have already begun, the crew prepared to act. They had a nuclear torpedo on board and could launch if they believed conflict had started.
To force the submarine to surface, the U.S. dropped non-nuclear depth charges. Cut off and under pressure, the officers aboard B-59 faced a decision: should they launch?
The launch required unanimous agreement from three senior officers. Two voted to fire. The third, Vasily Arkhipov, refused.........
