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Scott Taylor: Rearming the army? Pick up the pace 

Canada's military has lengthy shopping list

Thanks to the re-election of U.S. President Donald Trump, for the past year Canada’s defence and security have been at the forefront of public discourse.

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From the ludicrous notion that Canada will become the 51st state to the very real whimsical imposing of trade tariffs, Trump has steadfastly maintained that Canada must make a massive increase to our defence budget or face his wrath.

For his part, Prime Minister Mark Carney has tried to judo-flip the equation by agreeing to spend more in total but less on U.S.-made defence systems. In other words, we’ll beef up our defence budget but take those dollars anywhere but the U.S.

Unfortunately for Carney, not only is that a difficult proposition in the short term, he also has resistance from within the ranks of the senior military leadership.

The Royal Canadian Air Force are hell bent on buying Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets, and only F-35 fighter jets. This is despite the fact that last spring Carney ordered a full review of the remainder of that contract before proceeding.

In December 2024, Canada agreed to buy a fleet of 88 F-35s at a project cost of $19 billion, but only contracted the purchase of 16 aircraft at a cost of $7 billion. Following Carney’s orders for the RCAF to review the remainder of the order, Saab of Sweden offered to build 72 Gripen fighter jets in Canada, along with six GlobalEye surveillance aircraft. It is an attractive offer.

The Gripen came in a close second to the F-35 in the RCAF competition to replace the force’s aged fleet of CF-18 Hornet fighters and is far cheaper to operate than the F-35. The GlobalEye is already based on a Bombardier Canadian-built aircraft.

The proposal estimates the creation of 12,600 jobs in Canada’s aviation sector. While there is a lot of public support to scrap the rest of the F-35s and diversify Canada’s defence expenditure to Sweden, the RCAF brass seem wedded to getting their coveted F-35s. The CBC recently reported that a contract had been signed for the key components of an additional 14 F-35s. Talk about tipping your hand that Canada is not seriously thinking of pivoting to the Gripen.

Someone in defence procurement should really read a book titled The Art of the Deal.

While not quite in the same league in terms of dollar value as the RCAF jets, the Canadian Army also has some hefty buying power in the form of several major acquisitions deemed in February 2023 to be “urgent operational requirements.” At that juncture, the war in Ukraine was entering its second year and, as remains the case to this day, the conflict had no signs of ending anytime soon.

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The Canadian Battle Group in Latvia is the command element of a multi-national NATO brigade aimed at deterring Russian aggression as part of Operation Reassurance. Canada had first sent 800 troops on a semi-permanent rotational basis into Latvia in 2017. However, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, things suddenly got real.

What had been created as a notional tripwire deterrent force was suddenly within shooting range of a hostile adversary.

By 2023, the nature of the conflict in Ukraine had become clear: In near-peer engagement, the battlefield necessities were first-person view drones, counter-drone measures, self-propelled armoured artillery, sophisticated anti-armour missiles and low-level air defence.

Canada possessed none of these in February 2023. So given that all these capabilities were deemed urgent operational requirements three years ago, how much of that kit has been fielded in Latvia? Sadly, there has been no contract issued to date for either the drones or drone countermeasures. Testing has been conducted in Ottawa, but the boatloads of drones that our troops needed yesterday remain on the “to do” list.

Ditto for the acquisition of a fleet of self-propelled howitzers. There is a $5-billion Indirect Fires Modernization project on the books to buy up to 98 155 mm self-propelled howitzers along with new 120 mm mortar systems. The Canadian Army scrapped the fleet of aged M-109 self-propelled howitzers in 2005. We have not had that capacity since.

Canada did fast-track the purchase of Spike anti-tank missiles from Rafael of Israel. Worth roughly $45 million, the Spike project included flying Canadian soldiers to Israel in July 2024 to train on the missile systems. However, those tests unveiled functionality issues with the missiles that have yet to be resolved. Army planners now hope to have these urgently required missiles in the hands of the Latvia battle group by mid-2026.

Canada had been completely devoid of any air defence systems since 2012. The one bright spot in all this procurement bungling is that in 2024 the Latvia-based Canadian battle group received a Saab RBS-70 very short-range air defence system. It is hoped that by 2027, a full counter-rocket artillery and mortar system will be delivered and operational in Latvia utilizing the Saab Giraffe radar system.

Last October, the U.S. approved the sale of 26 high-mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) to the Canadian Army at a cost of $2.4 billion. The sad part about this acquisition is threefold.

Because of the backlog on Lockheed Martin’s HIMARS international order book, Canada will not receive the first launcher until 2029. Secondly, as discovered by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the HIMARS is only effective at longer ranges if you have access to the U.S. intelligence link. The final point is the missed opportunity to pivot away from making another major U.S. purchase.

Hanwha of South Korea makes the comparable K239 Chunmoo Modular Artillery system with a similar range and lethality to that of the HIMARS. The Hanwha K239 system was recently purchased by Norway and other NATO allies.

No doubt Hanwha could also deliver them before 2029.

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