Epic insider trading by those who likely know Trump’s plans is one characteristic of the US war on Iran, with some observers suggesting the on-again off-again peace deals are deliberately choreographed for the markets.

Observers are once again raising concerns about insider trading on Wednesday 6 May after a trader took a colossal crude oil short position just over an hour before a US–Iran peace deal was reported to be on the horizon, causing prices to fall.

The Kobeissi Letter, a financial newsletter, reported on X that at 3:40 am on Wednesday, “nearly 10,000 contracts worth of crude oil shorts were taken without any major news”. This was equivalent to $920 million in notional value, which the letter described as “an unusually large trade” so early in the morning. But it would soon pay off.

At 4:50 am, just 70 minutes later, Axios published an exclusive scoop by Middle East reporter Barak Ravid that the White House believed the US and Iran were on the verge of agreeing to a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war, which included more nuclear negotiations, one of the key sticking points for US President Donald Trump.

By 7:00 am, just........

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