The AUKUS nuclear submarines are not going to be delivered on time and may never arrive. Delaying the decision for a better alternative risks Australia’s future submarine capability.

Back in 2021, the then prime minister, Scott Morrison announced the AUKUS agreement with the then American president and British prime minister. The details were announced nearly two years later under the Albanese government. Australia would acquire five new nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) built to a new British design (SSN AUKUS). As these submarines would not arrive before the 2040s, the US agreed to sell us three to five of their Virginia-class nuclear submarines, starting in the early 2030s.

In return for this unprecedented transfer of its closely held submarine technology, the US Navy would gain access to Australia’s west coast submarine base, HMAS Stirling, from which it would deploy a new tri-nation submarine squadron, Submarine Rotational Force West. It is difficult to overstate the strategic value to the US of this access to the Indian Ocean, through which over 70 per cent of China’s oil imports pass.

The projected total cost of this naval package was expected to be around $A368 billion. But despite the huge cost, there was no proper process underpinning this decision. There was no analysis of the massive distortion to the defence budget implied by the acquisition of an advanced new military capability previously only contemplated by great powers. It is also not clear whether the government understood the aggressive change in Australia’s force posture towards China implied by the decision. There seemed to be little consideration of sovereignty implications. Instead, Morrison was characteristically secretive, and the decision making was confined to a small group working directly to him.

With the next election only months away, Anthony Albanese very likely felt wedged by Morrison’s announcement and, with little time for analysis, he stated the Opposition would support AUKUS. Less understandable is that after winning the subsequent election in May 2022, Albanese ignored the critics who were urging him to set up a review of this very expensive, far reaching and controversial decision.

When it became clear the British could not supply a mature submarine design, the Albanese government also rejected an attractive offer by France to provide their new, proven, in-service Suffren class SSN. Suffren would have been significantly cheaper, available sooner than the AUKUS platforms, with a crew size not much larger than Collins, and much better suited to Australia’s operational requirements.

Why we need an alternative to AUKUS

Retired Rear Admiral Peter Briggs, a former commander of Australia’s submarine force, has demonstrated that the AUKUS submarine agreement has major defects:

The........

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