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Labour market data: Complex, imperfect and politically convenient

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Labour market data is politically potent, technically complex and often imperfect. Recent US events are a reminder that Australia’s own systems deserve closer scrutiny.

The announcement from the Trump administration that US monthly jobs reports might be suspended “until they can get the data and methodology in order” has generated predictable outrage. Critics point out, correctly, that the same methodology served successive presidents, including Trump himself, without complaint. The sudden declaration of “unreliability” now, when the numbers may be politically awkward, is hard to view as anything other than a pretext.

But beneath the political theatre lies an uncomfortable truth: labour market data is complex to collect, interpret and present. It is imperfect in every country, including our own. And while outright suspension is rare, the temptation to “fix” or “massage” the numbers is not confined to Washington. Canberra is no stranger to that game.

Labour market statistics are not a direct headcount of people with jobs. In the US, the Bureau of Labor Statistics relies on two entirely separate monthly surveys: a household survey capturing individual employment status and a........

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