The war between the US and Iran is increasingly being driven by the self-reinforcing dynamics of escalation, retaliation and mistrust that make de-escalation politically and strategically difficult.

As the US and Iran struggle to find a way out of war, they are being hampered by the entrapping and self-perpetuating nature of the conflict escalation process itself. Understanding this dynamic is a first step to preventing further escalation and engaging in conflict de-escalation.

At the heart of the Iran War are existential concerns about safety and security. Iran’s uranium enrichment and fear that Iran could build nuclear weapons are a major source of angst for the US and Israel – as are Israel’s 90 or so undeclared nuclear weapons for Iran. This is a classic security dilemma, where a state’s efforts to increase its security cause reactions from others that lead to a decrease in its security. Indeed, Iran’s nuclear enrichment led to surprise attacks by the US and Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities on 22 June.

Of course, Trump’s 2018 withdrawal (reportedly encouraged by Netanyahu) from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (painstakingly negotiated over 20 months with the P5 1 and EU), even when Iran was abiding by the agreement (as certified by the IAEA) surely undermines Iran’s trust in any agreement it may now reach with the US.

The apparent trigger for the current hostilities was a visit to Washington by Netanyahu on 11 February, where Trump and his inner circle met with the Israelis in the Situation Room. Netanyahu reportedly made a hard-sell pitch: “suggesting that Iran was ripe for regime change.” He argued that “a joint US-Israeli mission could finally bring an end to the Islamic Republic” in just a few days. Trump is reported to have ended the meeting saying, “It sounds good to........

© Pearls and Irritations