Australia’s post-COVID migration surge is receding, but it exposed deep weaknesses in the temporary visa system. Restoring public confidence requires better regulation, clearer pathways and less fixation on a single net migration number.

Immigration is among the most controversial issues in politics globally, including in Australia, where it is helping fuel the rise of Pauline Hanson’s anti-immigration One Nation as a significant political force challenging the government.

Under these circumstances, the government knows it needs to demonstrate competence on immigration policy and shore up public confidence in the migration system. Yet last week Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke postponed a major National Press Club speech on immigration because the government’s policy was not ready.

So what should Burke say when he does address the Press Club? Assuming his objectives are to address the real problems in Australian migration management and reassure the public that the system is under control, we suggest six messages. Getting these settings right would matter beyond Australia too: many countries look to Australia as a model of effective migration management.

Above all, Burke should explain not merely how the government intends to reduce migration, but what problem it is trying to solve. He needs a coherent account of the post-pandemic surge, the structural weaknesses it exposed, and the principles guiding reform. Here are six things Burke should say to the National Press Club on immigration:

1. “We are still stabilising the migration system after COVID-19”

Burke should begin by explaining that COVID-19 did not simply reduce migration. It abruptly interrupted both arrivals and departures. When borders reopened, arrivals recovered quickly, but departures responded more slowly. Students, working holidaymakers and other temporary residents whose stays or pathways had been extended during the pandemic continued moving through the system.

The result was a ‘migration splash’: movement was first suppressed, then released in a sharp rebound that overshot before beginning to settle. Net overseas migration has already fallen substantially from its post-pandemic peak and is forecast to decline further.

Burke should........

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