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Trump, Iran, and Stoessinger’s Warning on the Dangers of Misperception

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yesterday

In his book Why Nations Go to War, John G. Stoessinger has contested the traditional explanation of war. Many factors, such as ideology, military might, territorial disputes, and economic interests, undeniably contribute to conflict. Stoessinger has debated that wars are shaped by the decisions of leaders. He further argues that political leaders usually engage in conflicts not because war is inevitable, but owing to their misperception of the opponents’ intentions, capabilities, and resolve. Other factors, such as overconfidence, pride, and incorrect assumptions, often lead leaders to believe they can achieve victory, and it ultimately transforms the manageable crisis into costly wars. His thesis remains highly applicable in analyzing contemporary international conflicts, including the ongoing tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran. 

The war between these countries showed that military strength was not always the decisive factor and that power did not always mean victory. Apparently, it was assumed that the joint advanced military might of the US and Israel would crush the smaller opponent in a short period of time. However, these assumptions demonstrated the popular belief in international politics regarding the force as a guarantor of achieving the desired political interests. On the other hand, the trajectory of the conflict proved considerably more complex. 

Instead of giving up under pressure, Iran proved to be resilient. By adapting to changing........

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