From Allies to Adversaries: How Pakistan and the Taliban Fell Out

On Wednesday, July 1st, Afghanistan launched a series of drone strikes at targets in Pakistan, a few days after Pakistan had launched its own air strikes on Afghanistan. This is the latest in a long series of skirmishes between the two countries and threatens to upend a fragile semi-ceasefire that was agreed in March. 

Let’s start by explaining how Pakistan and the Taliban got into this mess. Until recently, the Taliban and Pakistan were actually pretty good mates. In reality, Pakistan had been supporting the Taliban and the entire group of Mujahideen in their struggle against the Soviets in the ’80s and became one of only three nations that recognized the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan after their victory and capture of Kabul in 1996, the other two being Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Relations between Pakistan and the Taliban continued despite the US occupation of Afghanistan starting in 2001.

This annoyed the US government, but Pakistan did not want to sever relations with the Taliban as Pakistan believed that one day the TTA could again come into power. This was because Pakistan did not want the TTA to house any terrorist organizations within its territory that would conduct operations against the state of Pakistan, including the TTP. Unfortunately for Pakistan, when the Taliban returned to power in 2021, they made basically no effort to stop terror groups, including not just the TTP, but also other groups like the Baloch Liberation Front, from operating out of Afghanistan. And terror attacks inside Pakistan restarted with increasing frequency. According to the Center for Research and Security Studies, 2024 and 2025 were the two deadliest years for Pakistani security personnel for nearly a decade, with over 1,200 fatalities. In response, Pakistan carried out intermittent strikes on TTP targets inside Afghanistan. There was an escalation in October when Pakistan launched a series of air strikes on targets in Kabul and Kandahar, signaling that they would hold the Taliban directly responsible for attacks by terror groups operating out of Afghanistan. 

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