Nearly six months later, President Donald Trump is no longer speaking confidently about unconditional victory. He is talking about negotiations and the danger of an “economic catastrophe” for the USA and its people if the conflict continues.

This is more than a change in language. It is a strategic admission that the economic pressure intended to break Iran has recoiled upon the United States and the wider world. The war has damaged Iran enormously, but it has also depleted American munitions, disrupted energy supplies, raised fuel and consumer prices, unsettled financial markets and exposed the limits of Washington’s military power.

Trump acknowledged this danger while defending his diplomatic approach. He linked expectations of peace with gains in the stock market and warned that continuing the conflict could produce a severe economic downturn. Trump said he “didn’t want to see economic catastrophe” and suggested that prolonged warfare could have created something resembling an international depression.

That statement represents a remarkable reversal. At the beginning, the administration projected the war as a demonstration of irresistible American power. Iran would supposedly lose its leadership, missile forces, nuclear infrastructure, economy and ability to influence the region. Now Washington is seeking an exit partly because the economic consequences have become intolerable for Americans themselves.

The Strait of Hormuz has transformed the entire strategic equation. Before the war, ships passed through the waterway without paying Iran for access. Today, Tehran’s ability to disrupt or regulate traffic has turned the strait into its greatest bargaining instrument. Every interruption raises oil prices, transportation costs and inflationary pressure throughout the world. Iran can therefore impose economic costs far beyond the damage inflicted on its own territory.

Trump says the United States is “semi-negotiating,” apparently relying upon economic pressure to force Tehran into an agreement. Iranian........

© Pakistan Observer