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Transatlantic Alliance under strain

114 22
17.02.2026

PRESIDENT Donald J Trump’s rapid reorientation of US foreign policy and strategic deprioritisation of Europe have alarmed European leaders.

His Greenland venture and bullish attitude toward allies and partners undermined eighty years of Euro-Atlantic trust. Therefore, European leaders are seeking to constitute a collective defence policy to strengthen the European defensive fence. The European strategic anxiety was evident at the 2026 Munich Security Conference, with a predominant theme: Destruction.

The post-1945 Euro-Atlantic security architecture is undergoing transformation due to the protracted Russia-Ukraine War, the Trump Administration’s realignment toward the Western Hemisphere, the growing significance of the Asia-Pacific and the deprioritisation of Europe. The US National Security Strategy, declassified in November 2025, decisively prioritises protecting the homeland and Western Hemisphere. It also emphasized that “Europe to stand on its own feet and operate as a group of aligned sovereign nations, including by taking primary responsibility for its own defence, without being dominated by any adversarial power.” Is Europe prepared for its own defense?

Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany and President Emmanuel Macron of France once again drew the attention of participants at the 2026 Munich Security Conference to President Trump’s wrecking-ball politics and the need for Europe’s economic and military security. While criticising President Trump’s treatment of the transatlantic alliance, both advocated for a stronger Europe capable of confronting Russia and working with the United States. President Macron said, “Europe is rearming, but we must now go beyond.” He argued for a unified power capable of ensuring European security in the new geopolitical environment.

Chancellor Merz summarized the vulnerabilities of the major powers and their strategic priorities in his opening speech at the Munich Security Conference on February 13, 2026. He said, “Big power politics has its own rules. It is fast, harsh and often unpredictable. It fears its own dependency but uses the dependencies of others, and, if necessary, exploits them.” He warned the Americans that “in the era of great power rivalry, even the United States will not be powerful enough to go it alone.” He sounds realistic because the US strategic competitors are China and Russia. Without the support of allies and partners, it is difficult for the US to maintain its primacy in the Asia-Pacific and the Euro-Atlantic simultaneously.

Macron and Merz are disappointed with Trump’s Ukraine policy. They believe that without Europeans involvement, the peace negotiations between Russia and the US are futile. In reality, the Europeans are immensely dependent on the US-led NATO for their security. They lack sovereign defences. Therefore, they desire to repair and revive transatlantic trust. Conversely, the European leaders are highlighting the destruction of the transatlantic relationship resulting from the Trump Administration’s approach to Europe. They are promoting the idea that Europe “learn to be a geopolitical power” and develops a stronger, self-standing security strategy.

Chancellor Merz reminded the audience that “the international order based on rights and rules is currently being destroyed.” This shows frustration and dissatisfaction with contemporary trends in international politics. To ensure security, he has been modernizing his country’s military and has been discussing with France and the United Kingdom the establishment of a nuclear deterrent for Europe. Many other speakers at the Conference recommended seeking alternatives to the American nuclear umbrella amidst growing fears of a more aggressive Russia. It’s too simplistic to assume that France and the UK will be able to provide credible nuclear deterrence for Europe. France and Britain are the only European countries to possess nuclear weapons, but both have small nuclear arsenals to counter the Kremlin’s nuclear might.

President Trump habitually uses tariff threats to influence the economic policies of allies and partners to his country’s advantage. Many speakers questioned Trump’s tariff policies, which run counter to the international liberal economic order. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director General of the World Trade Organization, expressed displeasure over the Trump Administration’s tariff policy at the Conference. She said, “I’m tired of too much lamentation. “Oh, the US has broken the world. Oh, all has come to an end. It would be better if people really sat up. Europe has the chance to lead the middle powers and support the system. So let’s [end] the lamentation and get going on trying to do the right thing.”

Trump’s protectionism, state-directed capitalism, economic nationalism and mercantilist approach are unacceptable to European leaders. In the Conference, they advocated reducing Europe’s economic dependence on the United States. President Macron and Prime Minister Starmer’s recent tours of China indicate that they are deepening economic cooperation with China to reduce their dependence on the United States. A deep divide between Europe and the United States is causing the destruction of the transatlantic relationship. It will strengthen the realist perspective on international relations, transform European strategic culture, intensify the arms race and, above all, challenge the region’s strategic stability.

—The writer is Prof at the School of Politics and IR, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.


© Pakistan Observer