THE US-Israel ongoing war against Iran has heightened the salience of missile defense systems.

The substantial deployment of low-cost drones and ballistic and cruise missiles compels defense policymakers to chalk out a viable defensive strategy grounded in aerial defense systems. So far, Iran’s cheaper drone strikes have been intercepted by the US, Israel and Gulf states with costly, advanced missile defensive systems.

The contemporary trends in international politics are driving towards a more anarchic world governed by the law of the jungle, which could spur more countries to pursue nuclear weapons and aerial defences. This perception is likely to reinforce major powers’ already extensive military build-up, including their nuclear capabilities and instigate countries such as South Korea and Japan as well as some in Europe and the Middle East, to become more interested in developing nuclear weapons and defensive systems.

In recent years, low-cost, one-way-attack lethal drones (ranging from large missile-launching uncrewed aircraft and next-generation collaborative loyal wingmen to loitering munitions and small quadcopters carrying explosives) have received immense attention. A drone, costing around $20,000, is manufactured from readily available materials and powered by civilian engines sourced from commercial markets. Such drones have been deployed in the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war and the US+Israel-Iran war. Importantly, the increasing deployment of drones will involve expanding capabilities in military-civilian dual-use technologies, thereby posing greater challenges for the global non-proliferation regime and spiking investment in aerial defenses, especially missile defense systems.

The US has invested immensely in the research and development of missile defense systems. The US Director of National Intelligence, Ms Tulsi Gabbard, during a threat assessment briefing to the US Senate’s Intelligence Committee on March 18, 2026, once again sensitized the Congressmen about the looming threat of ballistic missiles and reiterated the significance of counter-measures.

She opined that China, Russia, North Korea and Iran are “researching and developing an array of novel, advanced or traditional missile delivery systems with nuclear and conventional payloads that can strike the homeland.”Neither Iran nor Pakistan possesses intercontinental ballistic missile capability. Islamabad categorically rejected Ms. Gabbard’s claims. It stated the country’s strategic capabilities are “exclusively defensive in nature, aimed at safeguarding national sovereignty and maintaining peace and stability in South Asia.”

Pakistan has no designs to acquire intermediate or intercontinental ballistic missiles capability because its military posture is focused on regional deterrence rather than targeting the American homeland. The general perception is that such alarming assessments by US officials are intended to persuade Congressmen to increase the budget for Trump’s announced Golden Dome project.

Since the demise of the 1972 ABM Treaty in June 2002, the US has invested billions of dollars in the research and development of missile defence systems. On January 27, 2025, President Trump issued an executive order entitled “The Iron Dome for America”—later renamed “Golden Dome”—to the Defense Department, directing it to develop proposals for a comprehensive anti-missile and air defense system for the United States. Trump’s Golden Dome project, worth $175 billion, announced last year with an ambitious 2028 timeline, envisions expanding existing ground-based defenses, such as interceptor missiles and adding more experimental space-based elements to detect, track and potentially counter incoming threats from orbit.

Iran’s missile and drone strikes against GCC states–Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait–will compel them to invest in hard power in pursuit of security. The need for hard power security will increase their dependence on the US military-industrial complex. They would purchase both offensive and defensive military hardware from the United States. On March 19, 2026, the US announced the approval of $16.46 billion in military sales to the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, i.e., lower-tier air and missile defence sensor radars — which are designed to track high-speed targets and give data to a missile defence network and a long-range discrimination radar — which tracks ballistic missile threats — and related equipment.

The US’s interest in the Middle East has undergone a massive transformation from an oil economy to a weapons economy. The other militarily technologically advanced nations, including Russia and China, will compete with the US for capturing the Middle Eastern armaments market. This competition drives colossal resources for the development of aerial defenses, especially missile defense systems. Undeniably, the salience of aerial defense risks exacerbates global instability and accelerates strategic competition.

—The writer is Prof at the School of Politics and IR, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.

© Pakistan Observer