Most of the Edmonton Oilers’ moves this off-season, particularly the more significant ones, have focused on improving the back end and the goaltending. One signing that flew under the radar amid the flurry of activity on July 1 was the addition of forward Mathieu Joseph.

Joseph, a 29-year-old left-shot winger from Laval, signed for one year at a one-million-dollar AAV. Across his eight-year NHL career, he has played with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Ottawa Senators, St. Louis Blues, and the Los Angeles Kings. This past season, he played 39 games with the Blues and 12 games with the Kings.

At a glance, the signing seems unremarkable. Edmonton already has a crowded group of forwards competing for roster spots, and Joseph’s most recent NHL stint with the Kings was rather underwhelming, as he failed to record a single point through 12 regular-season games and 2 postseason games. It’s easy to see why some may consider him as little more than a potential 13th forward on this roster.

However, there may be more value here than initially meets the eye. Joseph possesses several traits that could make him a highly useful player for the Oilers. I believe he has a legitimate chance to not only earn a roster spot, but carve out a meaningful role if given the chance in Edmonton’s bottom-six.

Using a combination of data and some video analysis, this article will dive deep into Joseph and what he could bring to this team.

Mathieu Joseph’s defensive numbers are excellent

As evident in my recent articles about Ryan Shea and Shakir Mukhamadullin, I am quite fond of using the components that make EvolvingHockey’s WAR model in player analysis, particularly their EVD (even-strength defence value) and SHD (short-handed defence value) metrics to assess defensive play. 

In short, these models use regression to isolate a player’s results from certain external factors (quality of teammates, quality of competition, zone starts, and more) in an attempt to determine their individual impact on suppressing quality scoring chances (xGA). The model is not flawless, but I find it quite useful. And in our case, the model absolutely adores Joseph’s defence.

In the past three seasons, EvolvingHockey has Mathieu Joseph at a 8.0 EVD rating. That ranks 24th among all NHL forwards. His EVD value per 60 minutes of play ranks in the 92nd percentile; in simpler terms, his even-strength defensive impact rate is superior to 92 percent of all NHL forwards (minimum 500 TOI). These are outstanding results.

Just to put these numbers into perspective, we can compare them to some of the depth forwards that Joseph will be competing with for a roster spot:

In terms of EVD, none of Colton Dach, Max Jones, Trent Frederic, or Mattias Janmark comes close to Joseph. Dach is slightly above-average, Jones is slightly below-average, Frederic was solid in Boston but declined in Edmonton, and Mattias Janmark has been subpar in this regard despite his reputation as a defensive forward.

Joseph is also quite consistent in this regard. His EVD value has been net-positive in 6 of his 8 NHL seasons, and above the 70th percentile in each of the past three seasons on three separate teams. The Senators, Blues, and Kings all saw a sharp decline in high-danger scoring chances allowed per hour with Joseph on-ice.

In addition to his even-strength defending, Joseph has been a very reliable penalty-killer throughout his career. Though he didn’t kill penalties as frequently in 2025-26, he played over 320 minutes on the penalty-kill from 2022-23 through 2024-25, and his SHD per 60 ranked at a very solid 63rd percentile.........

© Oilers Nation