One prediction for the 2024 presidential race is a sure bet: no minor party or independent candidate will win a majority in the Electoral College. Recent polling suggests none will break double digits in the popular vote. Over the past two centuries, hundreds have tried, but no one has come remotely close to winning. Ross Perot failed to win a single elector in his well-funded 1992 bid. The beloved Teddy Roosevelt sought a third term as the Progressive Party nominee in 1912—and was embarrassed in a landslide, securing just 88 electors.

Nonetheless, many voters could very well see five uncompetitive candidates on their ballot this November: in addition to the perennial Green Party and Libertarian Party nominees, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West have launched independent campaigns, and No Labels is floating a possible bipartisan ticket. While the precise electoral implications of these candidacies are unknowable, they spell trouble for the effort to sustain a broad coalition unified in support of democracy and the rule of law. In all likelihood, a multi-candidate ballot would splinter the pro-democracy vote—and increase the likelihood that former President Donald Trump returns to the White House.

Why then, if minor party and independent candidacies are doomed to fail, are they so common? Some candidates know they cannot secure an Electoral College majority—but think they could win enough electors to ensure no one else gets........

© Newsweek