As former president Donald J. Trump's near-certain lock on the 2024 GOP nomination and increasing poll leads over Joe Biden dominate the headlines, congressional races have attracted less attention. But they will matter much more than it may appear. The Democrats hold a slim lead in the Senate, with several seats leaning Republican in 2024, while the Republican House majority is razor thin and getting thinner now that controversial former New York representative George Santos has been expelled and former speaker Kevin McCarthy stepped down at the end of 2023.

With an unpopular presidential incumbent, congressional Democrats should be vulnerable. Generic polling published by FiveThirtyEight, however, shows a dead heat, with each party garnering 44 percent of popular support for control of Congress. As was the case in 2022, control of the House will likely come down to a handful of races, with the Democrats needing a net win of just five seats to secure a majority.

Which races will provide those critical seats poses a dilemma. Aggressive GOP strategists are naturally looking to swing states, where determined efforts in congressional and other state campaigns could help Trump secure victories that he will need for reelection. Races in red states are less necessary for that goal, but Republicans should still look to those........

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