After senior BJP leader O Rajagopal broke the party’s jinx in 2016 by winning its first seat in the Kerala Legislative Assembly, poll pundits predicted there would be no turning back for the saffron party in the state. However, the 2021 election turned out to be a damp squib for the BJP, which was unable to increase its seats and also lost its only seat in Nemom to its arch rival, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI[M])

Though the seat slipped away from the BJP, the party has been able to raise its vote share in the state. As per the data available at the Election Commission, the BJP’s vote share only slightly increased from 10.53% in 2016 to 11.3% in 2021. However, it showed a sharp increase to 16.8% in the general election of 2024, when BJP’s Suresh Gopi won from the Thrissur seat. 

This vote share went down to 14.76 % in the local body elections of 2025. But major local bodies, including Thiruvananthapuram corporation, Thripunitura and Palakkad municipalities, went to the BJP.

This term, the BJP has been strategically focusing on around 40 seats where it has scored well during the recent local body elections. Among these, top priority has been given to seats such as Nemom, Palakkad, Manjeswaram, Kazhakoottam and Thrissur. 

Apart from these constituencies, the party is seen as a strong force in Kasargod, Malampuzha, Attingal and Chattannur, where it was a runner-up in the last Assembly election. 

One of the first candidatures announced by the BJP was that of its state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar in Nemom Assembly constituency in Thiruvananthapuram district. As per a C Voter pre-poll survey, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has a high chance of winning the seat. 

Rajeev is contesting against sitting MLA V Sivankutty of the CPI(M), who beat Rajagopal and closed the BJP’s single account in Kerala in 2021. Congress has fielded its former MLA KS Sabarinathan. Sabarinathan too is enjoying the success of increasing the tally of the United Democratic Front (UDF) in Thiruvananthapuram corporation in the recent local body election. 

This makes it a strong triangular fight in Nemom. The CPI(M), which scraped through by a narrow margin of 3,949 votes in 2021, is feeling the heat of BJP’s intense campaign. In fact, reports said that Sivankutty was initially reluctant to contest from this seat this time but was persuaded by the CPI(M). The party feared that Sivankutty’s absence would lead to speculations of CPI(M) helping the BJP win. 

It is an existential crisis also for the Congress, which has faced allegations of a deal with the BJP ever since Rajagopal won the seat in 2016 and has lagged in third place since. 

Deals are in the news this time too in Nemom after the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) openly announced its support for the CPI(M) candidate. Announcing its support for Sivankutty, the SDPI claimed that the CPI(M)........

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