New Delhi: In a move that is both surprising and has the ability to reshape the contours of social policy and electoral politics, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led central government on Wednesday announced a nationwide caste census. The announcement comes after decades of political dithering, legal wrangling, and agitations. It will be first comprehensive caste enumeration since the Britishers conducted the Census in 1931.

Predictably, the decision by the Centre has sparked an avalanche of interpretations: is this a political compulsion, a strategic masterstroke, an overdue acknowledgement of changing social realities — or perhaps a blend of all three? More importantly, what lies ahead?

Since Independence, caste data has been gathered only for Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs). The Other Backward Classes (OBCs), despite being eligible for reservations in education and public employment (following the Mandal Commission recommendations of the 1990s), were left out of formal caste enumeration. Consequently, policymaking has often been based on dated, inadequate, or anecdotal data, particularly when it comes to the OBCs — a group estimated, albeit imprecisely, to comprise over 40 per cent of the population.

Calls for a caste census have intensified over the past decade. Regional parties–and recently Congress party–and OBC leaders have consistently demanded updated data to support fairer distribution of reservations and welfare schemes, while courts have repeatedly pointed to the absence of empirical data to assess the legitimacy of various reservation claims. The failed Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC) of 2011 — marred by methodological flaws — further points to the administrative necessity of a scientifically conducted caste census.

First and foremost, the BJP’s decision shows mounting political compulsion. The results of recent caste-based surveys by states like Bihar (2023) and Karnataka (2015), alongside consistent demands from opposition parties like the RJD, SP, JD(U), and DMK, have........

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