Opinion | BLF, TTP, ISIS And Now War with Afghanistan: Pakistan’s Dangerous Spiral

Without addressing root causes — ending oppression, demilitarising regions, and pursuing honest peace with neighbours — Pakistan risks total implosion

Pakistan has declared full-blown war against Afghanistan with major strikes after Afghan forces attacked Pakistani border positions on the night of February 26, 2026

This war, which had been building up relentlessly ever since the Taliban seized power in 2021, was bound to explode at any moment — a direct consequence of Pakistan’s obsessive fear over Afghanistan’s steadily improving ties with India.

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The very neighbour Islamabad once tried to control through proxies has now turned the tables, leaving Pakistan ensnared in the web of violence it spent decades weaving. The recent surge in attacks by groups like the Islamic State, the Baloch Liberation Front, and the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan only underscores the grim reality: the nation’s internal fractures are deepening, born from decades of strategic miscalculations that have finally boomeranged with catastrophic force.

This predicament is largely self-inflicted, rooted in Pakistan’s long history of using militancy as a tool of state policy while suppressing internal dissent. In Balochistan, the seeds of rebellion were sown as far back as 1948, when Pakistani forces annexed the princely state of Kalat against the will of its leaders, ignoring parliamentary opposition and triggering the first armed uprising.

Successive governments, from the Pakistan Muslim League to the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, have perpetuated economic marginalisation, treating the resource-rich province as a colonial outpost. Balochistan, despite holding vast natural gas reserves and minerals, remains the poorest region, with the highest poverty and lowest literacy rates in the country. Islamabad’s vision was to co-opt Baloch elites through development promises, hoping to rally them against India, but instead, heavy-handed military deployments and enforced disappearances have fuelled a resilient insurgency.

The Baloch Liberation Army’s recent offensives, including the hijacking of the Jaffar Express in March 2025 that led to 26 deaths, demonstrate how this oppression has backfired, turning a peripheral grievance into a full-blown security crisis.

Similarly, Pakistan’s dalliance with the Taliban has proven catastrophic. For decades, the Inter-Services Intelligence backed Afghan Taliban factions to gain “strategic depth" against India, providing sanctuary and resources to groups that targeted Indian interests, such as the 2008 and 2009 bombings of the Indian embassy in Kabul orchestrated by the Haqqani network.

This proxy warfare aimed to disrupt India’s growing ties with Afghanistan, but the Taliban victory in 2021 flipped the script. Now, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, once a tolerated offshoot, launches attacks from Afghan soil, with over 600 incidents reported in the past year alone, killing hundreds of Pakistani soldiers and civilians. Clashes along the Durand Line escalated in October 2025, with cross-border strikes claiming civilian lives and straining relations further. Ironically, Afghanistan’s Taliban regime has warmed to India, with Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s October 2025 visit to New Delhi leading to joint statements condemning terrorism and boosting trade ties.

In early 2026, India increased aid to Afghanistan to 150 crore rupees, signalling a strategic realignment that left Pakistan isolated and paranoid — the very trigger that has now pushed Islamabad into open war.

Compounding this is Pakistan’s entanglement with Islamic State elements. Intelligence reveals links between the Inter-Services Intelligence and Islamic State Khorasan Province, including the “Dabori Agreement" that allegedly shielded the group in exchange for focusing attacks on Afghanistan rather than Pakistan. This arrangement, aimed at checking the Taliban and targeting India, has unravelled. Islamic State – Khorasan claimed responsibility for high-profile attacks like the 2024 Moscow concert hall massacre and plots in Europe, but its Pakistani branch now strikes domestically, as seen in the 2026 Islamabad mosque bombing. Former Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan defectors form a core of Islamic State leadership, turning tools once wielded against India inward. In 2025, Islamic State affiliates expanded operations to 22 countries, with deaths rising sharply in Pakistan.

Today, Pakistan’s primary concern is no longer India but the vulnerabilities exposed by these self-made adversaries. Its frontiers are porous, with Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan surpassing Islamic State attacks in lethality, Baloch insurgents occupying towns with suicide bombers and advanced tactics, and Islamic State exploiting sectarian divides.

The full-blown war with Afghanistan is merely the latest — and most damning — proof that decades of cynical proxy politics, economic exploitation, and brutal suppression have finally consumed the state itself. This internal and now external turmoil weakens Pakistan further, making it ripe for external manipulation. Both China and the United States benefit from a compromised Pakistan. Beijing views it as a pliant partner for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, securing energy routes while keeping Islamabad dependent on loans and investments.

Washington, meanwhile, leverages Pakistan’s instability to counter Chinese influence, offering selective aid in exchange for cooperation on issues like rare earth minerals and counterterrorism, all while aligning with India to contain Beijing. This dynamic ensures Pakistan remains fractured, unable to assert independence.

The situation deteriorates daily, a consequence not just of karma but of stubborn adherence to failed policies. Successive regimes, from the Pakistan People’s Party to the current coalition, have prioritised short-term gains over genuine reform, ignoring lessons from history.

Economic exploitation in Balochistan persists, proxy militancy continues unchecked, and alliances with extremists endure. Without addressing root causes — ending oppression, demilitarising regions, and pursuing honest peace with neighbours — Pakistan risks total implosion.

The author teaches journalism at St Xavier’s College (autonomous), Kolkata. His handle on X is @sayantan_gh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.

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