Saudi Arabia’s mutual defence pact with Pakistan may look dramatic, but its real driver is Riyadh’s insecurity after Israeli strikes on Iran and Qatar. Yet, history shows Pakistan is a fickle ally. Ask America, which found Osama bin Laden sheltered in Abbottabad, or China, which publicly rebukes Islamabad for failing to protect its workers. Contrast that with India: Modi and MBS enjoy a warm personal rapport, bilateral trade is nearing the $45 billion mark, and India is ready to be a central player in Riyadh’s energy and economic diversification goals. However, if the Saudis’ newfound tilt towards Pakistan threatens New Delhi’s core interests, India has levers of its own.

From ramping up crude imports from South America to deepening energy ties with Russia and Iran, India can easily recalibrate its energy security strategy. In partnering with Pakistan mostly due to the lure of Islamabad’s nukes, Saudi Arabia has made the wrong choice—and India can remind it where the real power balance lies.

On September 17, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan’s Shehbaz Sharif signed what they called a “Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement". The pact promises that any aggression against either country will be considered an attack on both. Pakistan’s defence minister went further, claiming the kingdom would now fall under Islamabad’s nuclear umbrella. Soon after, Khwaja Asif walked back on those remarks.

The timing tells most of the story. This agreement came just eight days after Israel struck Hamas in Doha, shattering Qatar’s confidence in American protection. For Saudi Arabia, Israel’s strikes on Qatar served as an eye-opening experience, proving just how shallow American........

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