India’s current geopolitical and agrarian problems appear to stem from a common issue: an oil shortage. Whether it’s US President Donald Trump sanctioning India and raising tariffs due to Russian oil or the scarcity of fossil fuel-based agri-chemicals like urea, India finds itself in a precarious position because of its heavy reliance on a fossil fuel economy.

The American-led Green Revolution further exacerbated this by steering Indian agriculture toward fossil fuel-based inputs. Consequently, India’s agriculture is now held hostage by oil prices and global oil supply.

Geopolitical movements such as the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the Israel-Iran conflict, or American pressure resulting in India’s inconsistent stance on Iranian or Russian oil have led to significant price fluctuations in global fertiliser markets, impacting both the government and farmers. For instance, global urea prices surged from $400 per tonne in May 2025 to $530 per tonne within months.

Sanctions, combined with China’s restrictions on urea imports, have resulted in India having a very low urea stock this August, reported at 37.19 lakh tonnes – 49.24 lakh tonnes less than the previous year. Consequently, states from Punjab to Karnataka are witnessing panic buying, hoarding, black marketing, and farmer protests demanding urea and other fertilisers.

The shutdown of two urea plants, Nagarjuna’s Kakinada plant and Ramagundam’s Telangana unit, due to technical faults has severely impacted domestic supply and production. What can be........

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