In the icy shadows of the Himalayas, where guns have fallen silent only to speak again, Pakistan’s military establishment seems to have forgotten an age-old truth — wars are not won by illusions. With the Pahalgam terror attack once again attempting to provoke the Indian state into retaliation, Pakistan’s assumption that China will leap to its defence in a hot war is not just naive — it’s suicidal.

General Asim Munir, with this calculated act of terror in Pahalgam, may have fired the first shot not just at India — but at the foot of his own army’s strategic posture.

For decades, Pakistan has leaned on China as a strategic counterweight to India. Infrastructure investments under CPEC, shared antagonism toward New Delhi, and defence cooperation gave the Pakistani establishment a false sense of security. But when it comes to actual war, China’s silence may be louder than its slogans.

India-China bilateral trade in 2023 stood at over $136 billion. Despite skirmishes in Galwan, both sides kept economic engines running. This isn’t just pragmatism —it’s survival. China has built its entire global posture on economic supremacy. Any disruption to India-China trade routes — especially during a war where Pakistan is the provocateur — would harm China’s strategic interests more than help Pakistan’s.

Post-COVID, Beijing has become increasingly inward-looking. Its focus is on stabilising internal dissent, reviving the slowing economy, and expanding soft power via trade. Military adventurism, especially on behalf of a volatile and diplomatically isolated client like Pakistan, would be a strategic own-goal.

In fact, if India retaliates to another........

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