Republicans get boost with Virginia ruling, but keeping House still tough
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Republicans get boost with Virginia ruling, but keeping House still tough
The Supreme Court of Virginia sent a shockwave through the political world when it struck down the map intended to give Democrats 10 of the state’s 11 seats in Congress.
But Republicans should pause before claiming that this election will cost Democrats four seats.
The original maps — before the gerrymander — were drawn by two special masters, Dr. Bernie Grofman of UC Irvine, and myself.
We received our commission after the state’s independent redistricting commission deadlocked and failed to produce a map in a timely fashion.
While the map was drawn blind to politics, it nevertheless worked in such a way that it reflected the politics of the state well.
And so, in a normal year, we would have expected the map to produce 6 Democrats and 5 Republicans.
In a good GOP year, that number would flip, and in a great year they might even win the 10th district in the north, and claim seven seats.
On the other hand, in a bad Republican environment, the 2nd (Virginia Beach) and perhaps even the 1st district (the necks........
