US News Metro Long Island Politics

Sports NFL MLB Olympics NBA NHL College Football College Basketball WNBA

Entertainment TV Movies Music Celebrities Awards Theater

Lifestyle Weird But True Sex & Relationships Viral Trends Human Interest Parenting Fashion & Beauty Food & Drink Travel

Health Wellness Fitness Health Care Medicine Men’s Health Women’s Health Mental Health Nutrition

Science Space Environment Wildlife Archaeology

Today’s Paper Covers Columnists Horoscopes Crosswords & Games Sports Odds Podcasts Careers

Email Newsletters Official Store Home Delivery Tips

Switch between CA and NY editions here.

Xavier Becerra leads in new poll — but he’s no powerhouse

See more of our coverage in your search results.

The general election is set. Xavier Becerra against Steve Hilton.

Becerra — former attorney general of California and Biden’s Health and Human Services secretary — is the Democrat. Hilton — British-born commentator, entrepreneur, former Fox News host and Trump-backed — is the Republican.

The first Berkeley IGS poll of the matchup puts Becerra up 52% to 31%, with 17% undecided. It was conducted online May 19-24 among more than 8,500 registered voters, run by veteran pollster Mark DiCamillo and funded in part by the Los Angeles Times. In California polling, it doesn’t get much more credible.

Twenty-one points. It looks like a rout.

Read the crosstabs and it stops looking like one. This poll doesn’t just show Becerra ahead. It shows why Democrats stay dominant in California — and why Becerra himself is no powerhouse.

Start with the math. A generic Democrat in a two-way California race begins with an enormous structural head start. Democrats outregister Republicans by 20 points. DiCamillo calls it “a huge advantage in general elections.”

So here is the question Democrats won’t ask out loud. With an advantage that large, why is Becerra stuck at 52%, with 17% still uncommitted?

Because the lead is the party registration, not the man. 

Becerra isn’t running ahead of his party. He’s running level with it. That isn’t strength. That’s gravity.

Hilton has his own anchor, and it’s a heavy one. Trump’s approval among California voters sits at 29%. Sixty-nine percent disapprove. Sixty-two percent disapprove........

© New York Post