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California Governor’s debate reveals major problem — as all the candidates are ranked

The California gubernatorial race is drawing national attention — and local voters are finally tuning in.

Democrats are looking for a new frontrunner after Eric Swalwell’s implosion — and they are desperate to avoid an all-Republican general election if the two GOP candidates stay on top.

Wednesday night’s debate was entertaining — but it won’t change much about the race. Both Republicans looked solid, while the four Democrats failed to stand out.

That is a major problem for Democrats.

Under California’s “top two” or “jungle” primary system, all of the candidates compete in a common primary, which will be held this year on June 2.

The first- and second-place finishers go on to the Nov. 3 general election, regardless of party.

Roughly 40% of the state, at most, votes Republican. The other 60% votes Democrat. (About one in four voters is registered as “No Party Preference,” but few actually vote for independent candidates.)

The two major Republican candidates are running neck-and-neck, and can expect to split their voters fairly evenly. So each has a chance at winning about 20% of the vote in the primary.

The four Democrats onstage, however, are also running close to one another. If they split their vote four ways, each would win only 15%.

And there are more Democrats still in the running, meaning their party’s vote could be split even further.

Unless one Democrat surges, or — ironically — one Republican surges, leaving the other in single digits, there is a chance that both Republicans could qualify for the general election.

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