Andrey Kortunov: “China’s Position in This Conflict Will Be Restrained”

We present to you the second part of an exclusive interview with Soviet and Russian political scientist and public figure, candidate of historical sciences, and expert of the Valdai International Discussion Club, Andrei Vadimovich Kortunov, to New Eastern Outlook.

– Andrey Vadimovich, a popular theory in expert circles is that a strike on Iran is actually a strike on China. Indeed, Tehran is Beijing’s main ally in the Middle East and is among its three largest oil suppliers. At the same time, China seeks not to spoil its relations with Israel. What are the risks for China and its projects, and does it have any leverage over the current situation in the region?

– I would add here that not only is Iran a very important partner for China in the region, but the Arab countries of the Gulf also act as such partners. China buys a lot of oil not only from Iran but also from Saudi Arabia. In addition, China purchases liquefied natural gas from Qatar. So, it probably wouldn’t be correct to assert that China would unequivocally favor Iran over its other partners in this region. It’s clear that China, like all other consumers of Gulf hydrocarbons, suffers from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The longer this situation persists, the more damage it will inflict on the Chinese economy.

The shortfall in oil and LNG supplies from the Gulf could be partially compensated for by China’s other partners, particularly the Russian Federation, and perhaps also by Canada or someone else. But it’s clear that the disruption of established trade chains will lead to higher energy costs for the Chinese economy. The reserves currently within China itself, needed to sustain its energy-intensive production without resorting to imports, will only last for the next two to three, maybe four months, at most. So, for China, this conflict is certainly a major headache.

And the issue here isn’t just about economic costs. Among other things, this conflict demonstrates that the United States is capable of doing whatever it wants in this region,........

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