What can the “middle powers” do?

American dominance is fading, but no new hegemon is rising to—or even willing to—replace it. The world is drifting into a multipolar order without a clear centre. In this uncertain landscape, stability will not come from a single superpower.

The Fading of the Unipolar Era

For roughly three decades after the Cold War, the international system revolved around the US. Washington possessed unmatched military reach, financial dominance, and institutional influence. That structure is now eroding. China’s economic rise, Russia’s strategic assertiveness, and the broader diffusion of economic power across Asia have reduced the relative weight of the US. America remains enormously powerful, but it is no longer unchallenged.

What is emerging is not a simple transfer of hegemony. China has grown into the world’s second-largest economy by nominal GDP and the largest by purchasing power parity, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Yet Beijing has consistently framed its global vision in terms of “multipolarity,” not domination. Russia, too, has long argued for a world of multiple power centres rather than a single hegemon. Within this multipolar world, middle powers have an enormous space to fill. In fact, they do have the capacity for such a role.

The numbers reflect this capacity. According to IMF data for 2024–2025, India accounts for roughly 8–9 per cent of global GDP in purchasing-power-parity terms, making it the world’s third-largest economy by that measure. Indonesia contributes around 2.5 to 3 per cent, Turkey about 2 per cent, and Canada roughly 1 to 1.5 per cent.........

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