What does Trump’s historic defeat mean for geopolitics and the world?

The Democratic landslide in the US midterms is more than just a rejection of Donald Trump’s domestic agenda. It’s a stark demonstration of the limits of personalist power and a significant weakening of the international network of leaders who have been in the MAGA camp.

Donald Trump has had a very bad political result. On 3 November voters handed the Democrats a very significant defeat in the midterms, taking control of both houses of Congress and effectively ending Republican dominance in a number of key conservative states. Texas and Kansas were particularly significant states in this. It was also a very significant election for minority representation with a number of Black, Indigenous and Latino candidates achieving historic wins.

This wasn’t just a Democratic win. It was a rejection of a political model in which personal loyalty was prized above institutions, confrontation above compromise and ideological mobilisation above the day-to-day concerns of citizens. The message of the electorate was very clear: democracy, civil rights, public education, social protection and economic security cannot be permanently sacrificed to political show.

The domestic cost of Trump’s foreign policy

The reasons for the defeat are inextricably linked to the contradictions of the Trump presidency. He promised prosperity for the American people, lower prices and an end to foreign wars. What the American people got was continued pressure on affordability, rising energy prices and the economic fallout from a large-scale war with Iran. His tariffs were a complete failure in terms of protecting the American consumer. His hardline stance on immigration and his attacks on the institutional checks and balances of government alienated a whole part of the electorate outside of the traditional Democratic base.

Vice President JD Vance’s subsequent explanation of the GOP’s defeat as being due to the Iran war highlights a serious fissure within the administration. The war has undermined the political standing of a movement which has been all about opposition to foreign intervention. The issue is no longer just whether Trump can win the next political battle, it’s whether MAGA can survive the inherent contradiction between its nationalist rhetoric and the international commitments it has made in the name of that movement.

A weakened president, but not yet a powerless one

Trump is entering his final two years with considerably reduced domestic legitimacy and a Congress that is quite prepared to look into his administration, challenge its budgetary-war agenda and question its........

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