Europe’s Energy Gamble: How the Iran Crisis Could Reshape the Gas War with Russia

Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and surging energy prices are exposing the fragility of Europe’s post-Russian energy strategy while potentially strengthening Moscow’s leverage in global energy markets.

The Costs of Strategic Dependency

The study identifies several risks: strategic vulnerability when economic dependencies translate into political pressure; loss of domestic credibility if governments repeatedly yield to external demands; weakened geopolitical authority when Europe struggles to uphold the rules it promotes internationally; and the gradual normalisation of transactional diplomacy, where coercion becomes a routine instrument of international bargaining.

European leaders often emphasise the costs of confronting powerful partners, particularly the United States or major energy exporters. Yet dependence carries its own risks, above all the slow erosion of political agency. The present energy crisis illustrates this dilemma vividly: Europe has tried to detach itself from Russian hydrocarbons while remaining deeply exposed to global supply shocks.

The result is a fragile equilibrium in which geopolitical turbulence far from European borders can quickly translate into domestic economic and political stress.

A Shock from the Gulf

That vulnerability is now being tested. The conflict with Iran has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. Roughly 20 per cent of global liquid hydrocarbons normally transit through this narrow passage every day. With maritime traffic suspended or severely restricted, the consequences for energy markets have been immediate.

Global oil prices surged after the joint military operation carried out by the United States and Israel against Iran, while European gas prices jumped by nearly 50........

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