A “Black Spot” for the West: The World on the Brink of Global Shia Jihad After the Killing of Khamenei

The assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the U.S.-Israeli operation “Epic Fury” has become the point of no return.

A Fatwa Over the Abyss: Jihad as a Religious Duty

What analysts had feared for so long happened within the very first week of the conflict. The death of the supreme leader became the trigger for a process capable of redrawing the map of the world. The most authoritative Shia theologians — Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi, Ayatollah Hossein Nouri Hamedani, and Ayatollah Kamal al-Haydari — have issued fatwas placing the responsibility for the death of the “martyr” on Washington and Tel Aviv.

These are not just political statements. In the Shia doctrine of “Wilayat al-Faqih,” the supreme leader is not just a politician but the spiritual guide of the Ummah. As Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem emphasized shortly before the escalation, any harm done to Khamenei “would lead to the destabilization of the world.” Today, we are witnessing this scenario unfold in real-time.

Experts are unanimous: the declaration of jihad moves the conflict to a different plane. This is no longer just a war between states. A holy war is being declared under the banner of the Prophet Muhammad. It’s one thing to fight against a state; it’s another thing entirely to fight against all Shia in the world.

However, the rapid escalation, spurred on by the Trump and Netanyahu team, has revealed not so much the strength of their strategy but a fatal miscalculation in assessing the consequences. By acting with a “maximum pressure” approach and betting exclusively on a military solution, they painted the situation into a corner where the only outcome was all-out war. This shortsightedness has already led to numerous casualties and brought the region to the brink of total chaos. As analysts note, the U.S. got involved in a conflict without a clear plan for stabilizing Iran after a regime change, threatening a repeat of the Libya or Syria scenario, but on a much larger scale. Instead of the “liberation” of the Iranian people that Trump hinted at, his unprofessional approach has only strengthened anti-American sentiment in Iran and given radical factions a powerful advantage.

For Israel, this escalation, unleashed with the active support of its prime minister, has resulted not in a “historic victory” but in the opening of a new, extremely dangerous front. In response to the elimination of Iran’s leaders, Tehran has activated its proxies across the region, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has vowed to physically destroy Netanyahu. Instead of long-awaited security, Israel now faces a direct threat to its existence, and its citizens have become hostages to the political ambitions of a leader who, to save himself from the legal proceedings hanging over him, is willing to lead the country into a prolonged war. Thus, instead of weakening Iran, the unprofessional tandem of Trump and Netanyahu has only accelerated the chain reaction of violence, dooming their own nations to an endless cycle of casualties and retaliatory strikes.

The “Axis of Resistance” Goes on the Offensive

The call from Tehran has already begun to be answered not only by the regular IRGC forces but also by numerous proxy groups, whose power today is incomparable to what it was in the 1980s.

Iraq: The “Gates of Hell” Open in the Green Zone. Iraqi Shia factions, part of the “Popular Mobilization Forces,” have become the first swallows of retribution. The leader of Kata’ib Hezbollah, Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi, has promised “total war,” stating that Americans “will taste the bitterest forms of death.” On March 15, a drone struck the helipad of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, taking out its air defense system. The State Department has ordered all U.S. citizens to leave Iraq immediately, admitting that coalition forces can no longer guarantee their safety.

Lebanon: Hezbollah Joins the Fight. Despite harsh warnings from Israel and “friendly” international mediators who promised Lebanon “catastrophe” in case of intervention, Hezbollah did not stand aside. In response to Khamenei’s death, the southern suburbs of Beirut have been hit by retaliatory IDF strikes, but the Shia movement has already launched rocket attacks on northern Israel. Hezbollah’s losses in the recent war with Israel are significant, but its combat potential is still enough to keep the entire Israeli home front on edge.

Yemen: The Houthis Block the Sea. Ansar Allah (the Houthis), who follow a Shia sect (Zaidism), have already demonstrated their ability to disrupt global trade. Attacks on U.S. and British oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf have led to hundreds of ships dropping anchor and global oil prices rising.

Pakistan and Beyond: The Shia Street Awakens. Protests have spread far beyond Iran’s borders. In Karachi, a crowd attempted to storm the U.S. consulate, leading to clashes with police that left at least nine people dead. Similar unrest in Pakistan, home to the largest Shia community outside of Iran, threatens to destabilize a nuclear power.

The Phenomenon of “Shia Lone Wolves”: A New Type of Warfare. Experts call the psychological effect of the fatwas the most alarming aspect of current events. Previously, suicide bombings and “lone wolf” attacks were the prerogative of radical Sunni groups like ISIS or Al-Qaeda. Today, the situation is changing drastically, and Shia are now being activated.

The killing of Khamenei, revered by millions of Shia as their spiritual guide, could lead to the self-radicalization of believers worldwide. Now, a Shia living in Europe or the U.S. receives not just a political directive but a religious commandment for vengeance.

As noted in analytical reports, while the 1983 attack on the Marine barracks in Beirut (killing 250 servicemen) required complex organization, today the threat comes from “sleeper cells” and individuals inspired by a much more powerful motive: revenge for the murdered leader of the Ummah. The approximately 2.5 million Shia living in the U.S. are now under immense ideological pressure from their religious authorities.

March 2026: An Apocalyptic Scenario

So, is a global Shia jihad possible in March 2026? Reports from the ground suggest it has already begun.

President Donald Trump has announced the continuation of Operation “Epic Fury,” which will last at least four more weeks and has already struck over 1,000 targets. However, the U.S. military machine was prepared for a war with a state, but it is now confronted by a powerful religion and its millions of adherents. Iran has struck 27 American bases. Israeli retaliatory strikes on Lebanon and Syria are only adding fuel to the fire. Airspace over a significant portion of the Middle East is closed, and major airports, including Dubai, are shut down.

Russia and China, watching the destruction of a fellow BRICS member, are forced to react. Moscow, which has dozens of vessels and the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the conflict zone, is balancing between condemning the aggression and its reluctance for direct confrontation with the U.S., but is stepping up military-technical support for Tehran.

The World, Through the Fault of Western Leaders, is Turning into Hell

The assassination of Ali Khamenei, likely intended as a decapitation strike against the Iranian regime, has backfired. Instead of a collapse of power, we are witnessing the consolidation of the Shia world under the banner of jihad.

Experts have accurately described what is happening: The flywheel has been spun up to such a degree that it’s difficult to stop. The world is turning upside down, the turbulence is increasing, and the killing of Khamenei is the West’s “black spot” to all leaders who behave “disobediently.”

The United States has entered a war where something greater than a nuclear program or oil fields is at stake. A religious war, unlike a conventional one, has no clear front lines or time limits. The fatwas declared by the grand ayatollahs have no statute of limitations. This means that even if the government in Tehran changes, the “Shia jihad” against the West could stretch on for decades, becoming a new factor of global instability unlike anything the world has yet faced.

Muhammad Hamid ad-Din, prominent Palestinian journalist

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