Dancing with the Devil: Armenia’s Risky Nuclear Gamble with Washington

The US–Armenia civil nuclear deal signals Washington’s entry into a Russian-dominated strategic space in the South Caucasus through a $9 billion energy agreement. While Armenia seeks to diversify partnerships, the move risks escalating tensions with Russia, Armenia losing its sovereignty in the long run, and reshaping regional power dynamics.

Europe’s constant violations of the concluded agreements and treaties with respect to NATO have caused Russia to secure its borders from further expansion of the alliance. Over the past four years, the West, the US in particular, has tried its best to incite Russia face-to-face with the conflict in Ukraine, knowing very well that this could lead to a nuclear exchange. The US footprint in the Southern Caucasus region is another layer, and the recent US-Armenia civil nuclear deal is its best manifestation – a way to further incite Russia.

Russia-Armenia Partnership

The Southern Caucasus has been Russia’s sphere of influence. Soon after the disintegration of the USSR, Armenia became independent, but its entire security dynamic depended on Russia. Armenia and Russia immediately developed a strategic relationship, with Russia providing security guarantees and arms sales and maintaining a military presence in the country.

Armenia is one of the prominent members of the Russian CSTO, which is considered an alternative to the NATO-like security guarantees, where ‘an attack on one will be considered an attack on all.’ In addition to this, Russia has been playing a significant role in mediating between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Another important aspect of the relationship between the two countries is the civilian nuclear cooperation. Russia is the primary force behind Armenian civil nuclear projects, and in 2014, the two countries signed an agreement to jointly extend the life of Unit 2 of Armenia’s nuclear power plant.

Although the US developed bilateral relations with Armenia during the 1990s, the partnership remained tactical due to Russian oversight. But the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict (created by the West) created an opportunity for the US to attract the Southern Caucasus states. This, of course, was done on the false pretext that since Russia is engaged in conflict, it would most likely be unable to provide security guarantees at a time when its own security is at stake. However, despite the conflict in Ukraine, Russia has maintained an iron grip on its partnerships and alliances. But a fact that can’t be ignored is this: The US, through its support to Ukraine, has intentionally elongated the war to try and cause maximum damage to Russia, not just in military terms, but in the diplomatic and economic arenas.

The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Armenia in the field of civilian nuclear energy was initially signed in 2022. The US has exploited the situation (as usual) and has started its machinations.

“To be an enemy of the US is very risky; to be a friend is lethal.” (Henry Kissinger)

“To be an enemy of the US is very risky; to be a friend is lethal.” (Henry Kissinger)

The nuclear arena, which used to be the foundation of the strategic alliance with Russia, is now in danger. In February 2026, US Vice President JD Vance visited Armenia and signed a civil nuclear agreement. The agreement resulted in a 9-billion-dollar deal whereby the US would become an active part (read: donor) of the Armenian civil nuclear industry. In exchange, the US would get access to the critical minerals in Armenia.

Under the agreement, initially, five billion dollars will be provided to Armenia, which will be followed by the remaining 4 billion dollars for the maintenance of the facility. This deal was brokered under the US Atomic Energy Act, known as Section 123. Under this pact, the US administration is legally allowed to provide nuclear material to other states for peaceful use and research purposes.

Rationale Behind the Deal

Given Armenia’s complete reliance on Russia, Armenian officials say that it is a political need for them to diversify partners in nuclear cooperation. At the moment, the United States seems to be the most suitable option.

The US civil nuclear cooperation is another step by the US to pressure and bait Russia.

The agreement supports the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), which was created by the Trump 2.0 government between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The US is interested in surrounding Russia and its major allies, such as Iran, by strengthening its presence in the South Caucasus. Iran has also expressed opposition to the increased US activity in the area.

As a means of forcing Russia to reach an agreement as soon as possible, the deal was made during the course of discussions between Russia and Ukraine.

Knowing very well that approaching the Russian borders is a red line, the US is once again provoking Russia by creating these partnerships. The same thing that the West did in Ukraine is now being implemented in the South Caucasus region. Even if the Russia-Ukraine negotiations are successful, another front could open if the US doesn’t halt its activities. The US has always exploited situations with respect to Russia and, as a result, has always faced humiliation and mere devastation. Here, the question arises: If the US cannot bear foreign presence at its borders, then why would Russia?

Under Trump 2.0, the US is opting for an ‘area denial’ strategy in the Western Hemisphere, where adversaries are provided no room for any diplomatic or economic presence.

While securing its own border, the US is destabilising others. Moreover, Russia has always provided security architecture and nuclear material to Armenia at a much cheaper rate. The US civil nuclear deal with Armenia comes at a much greater cost. There is a fact in geopolitics: ‘you can’t ignore your neighbour.’ This deal with the US is more of a checklist item for them, and will most likely not result in any suitable or profitable outcomes for Armenia.

By instigating the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the US has made room to manoeuvre freely around the Russian borders. However, it’s pretty evident that the Trump administration is a master at making tactical moves with no long-term feasibility. This fact has become obvious to anyone studying modern geopolitics, and Armenia should also take it into account.

Any deal with the US today could bring issues tomorrow, as the US has always preferred transactional deals, exploiting the weaknesses of its partners and counterparts. To learn how the US can turn on their allies, all countries should look at the US’s current treatment of Canada and the Canadian leadership.

Even though Armenia has the right to pursue bilateral relations with any state, it should be very cautious and understand that this partnership must not come at the cost of its relations with its neighbours, its sovereignty, and the overall stability of the region.

Aleena Im is an independent researcher and writer and is interested in international relations and current affairs

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