Among the sources of entertainment this holiday season was viewing the many YouTube compilations of the election night coverage of major TV networks in the United States. Curated by small-time poll aggregators and angry MAGA (Make America Great Again) supporters, the hour-long videos provided vivid examples of the vacuousness of mainstream political punditry.

It was funny to observe how, when the polls closed, networks such as CNN, CBS and MSNBC were highlighting the surge in voter turnout among Puerto Ricans and on college campuses. It was suggested that these sections would tilt the balance in the five crucial swing states in favour of Kamala Harris who, the pundits felt, had run a “flawless campaign.” At this point, various opinion polls were produced to show that Donald Trump was the least acceptable candidate. Trump's pariah status was garnished by pious comments centred on the belief that an overwhelming majority of women attached greater priority to reproductive rights over the state of the economy. If these pious certitudes appear, in hindsight, to be quite ridiculous, the underlying humour behind the meltdown once it was clear that Trump had beaten Harris conclusively, was inescapable. The political analysts moved from analysing the votes to debunking the intelligence of voters and lamenting the future of the US.

If the global liberal fraternity failed to anticipate the underlying support for Trump and needed ‘safe zones' and counselling on the campuses to get over the trauma of an unpalatable electoral verdict, much of the responsibility lies with the pollsters. In poll after poll, these so-called independent pollsters had suggested that the outcome on November 5 was within the margin of error, and thus, too close to call. Was this due to sampling errors or social pressures that made those who voted for Trump wary of admitting this openly? This was certainly the case in the 2016 presidential election, and it speaks volumes for the political environment of the world's most powerful democracy, that supporters of the winner have to keep their preferences under wraps for fear of social ostracism.

The victory of Trump should, ideally, be a lesson to the presiding deities of the so-called ‘legacy media' and the polling industry to review their political assumptions. But the lessons aren't necessarily limited to the US. The three sets of elections held last year in India also warranted a clinical post-mortem which, alas, has not been forthcoming. Instead, the mismatch between what was projected and what transpired has been brushed aside casually, till the blunder the next time.

The most important lesson from the Lok Sabha poll and the subsequent assembly elections in Haryana and Maharashtra is the diminishing faith in pollsters. Most polls predicted a resounding BJP win in the Lok Sabha, a win for the Congress in Haryana and a small advantage for the BJP-led formation in........

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