Apr 27, 2026 14:45 pm IST

Opinion | A '45%' Problem: The Troubling Reason Trump Is Avoiding Another Strike On Iran

America has depleted nearly half of its key missile stockpiles in the Iran war, and replacing these systems will take three to five years, even with expanded production contracts already signed.

Col (Retd) Rajeev Agarwal Col (Retd) Rajeev Agarwal Columnist

Col (Retd) Rajeev Agarwal Columnist

On April 21, President Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire with Iran just a few hours before the deadline was supposed to end. This is the second time that Trump announced a ceasefire this month, the first one being on April 7, when he, like this time, unilaterally announced a 15-day ceasefire mere 90 minutes before the deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz was to expire.

Irrespective of the rationale presented by the US behind the announcement of a ceasefire each time, it is quite clear that the US wants an early end to the war and possibly on terms that it can dictate. Is it because the US has realised that Iran cannot be defeated militarily? Or, is it because the US does not have the wherewithal to fight Iran in an attritional battle for a prolonged period? To find possible answers to these, there is a need to examine two critical issues in this: the combat stamina and options for further military operations in this war by the US and Israel.

All inputs indicate that the US is looking at an early off-ramp in the war. In the current circumstances, if Iran were to unconditionally agree to open the Strait of Hormuz, the US is likely to take it as a win immediately and wind up its war commitment. Among other reasons, the primary reason is that the US is finding it difficult to replenish the essential stock of weaponry required to fight a prolonged war.

For the kind of war that the US is fighting in Iran, it essentially requires two types of munitions to fight. One is the stand-off ground attack munitions, which require aircraft, ships, artillery and missile systems to engage the targets. These munitions allow platforms to launch at a long, standoff distance from adversary air defences. The US has already engaged about 13,000 targets over the first 39 days before the ceasefire took effect on April 7. The second category is the air and missile defence system. It consists of systems like the Patriot missiles, the THAAD system, etc.

As per a recent report by CNN, the US has depleted nearly half of its key missile stockpiles in the Iran war, and replacing these systems will take three to five years, even with expanded production contracts already signed. It adds that the US has expended at least:

45% of its Precision Strike Missiles

Roughly 50% of its THAAD interceptors

Nearly 50% of its Patriot air defence missiles

The U.S. has also used around 30% of its Tomahawk stockpile

Over 20% of its long-range JASSM and........

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