Opinion | One Crisis, 4 Wins: How China Might Just Have Hit A Geopolitical Jackpot

Updated: Jul 28, 2026 17:30 pm IST Published On Jul 28, 2026 17:13 pm IST Last Updated On Jul 28, 2026 17:30 pm IST

Published On Jul 28, 2026 17:13 pm IST

Last Updated On Jul 28, 2026 17:30 pm IST

There is now a near-unanimous consensus that the Iran war has benefited China immensely. Against the sniggering commentaries of the initial days of the war, when it was believed that China would be hit hard, the more recent reports on how it has impacted China are far more sobering, if not outright envious. But China can hardly be blamed for accruing benefits from the shortsighted, ill-thought-out war.

There are four broad areas in which China is reportedly benefiting.

The first is military. The ongoing Iran war is being perceived as a gamechanger in the Indo-Pacific security architecture as the US continues to pivot to the Middle East, pulling out missile systems, long-range missiles, and interceptors from places like South Korea and Pacific Islands and transferring them to the Middle East to replenish depleting stockpiles there. This leaves China with greater military clout in the region and also helps it mount a narrative - especially around Taiwan - about the unreliability of the US as an ally. The war also helps China study American war manoeuvres, strike patterns, weapons systems, operational capabilities, etc., which are useful for any potential future conflict over Taiwan or in the Indo-Pacific.

Secondly, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz early into the war and the destruction of energy facilities have caused disruptions in energy supply chains on a scale hitherto unwitnessed. About 25% of crude oil and a fifth of LNG have disappeared from global energy markets. This has benefited China in two ways.

One, the energy shortfall has accelerated the push for renewables. Countries such as Pakistan and Vietnam have increased the deployment of renewable energy and the use of electric vehicles. China is the largest manufacturer of electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind turbines, and is leading global clean........

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