A few months ago, I laid out the case for why it might make sense for JD Vance to defer running for president for four years. Then, as now, I still think he will ultimately run in 2028. But following the midterms, the case for Vance to wait has gotten stronger.

The Young Right’s Nauseating New Battle Cry

Hegseth Impeachment Vote Imminent

The GOP’s Midterm Annihilation Comes Down to One Factor

The midterms complicated Vance’s path to the presidency in 2028 in several ways. Most obviously, the midterms represented a significant rebuke of the Trump administration, in which Vance is a central figure. Presidents rarely gain in popularity during their lame duck periods, and so it’s hard to imagine an incumbent vice president winning in an environment in which the president is polling below 40 percent approval.

Perhaps most significantly, in 2028 it will be incredibly difficult for Vance to run as his own man. Vance and Trump clearly have divergent views. While Trump has echoed Vance in saying that the Iran War had a significant political cost, it’s clear that they differ significantly on the merits of the war.

“If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so,” Vance wrote in his post. “Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.”

Vance obviously thinks it was not worth it.

While Trump said he did........

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