It was always a certainty that serious trouble in the Gulf was going to mean a squeeze on fertilizer supplies, and thus prices. Natural gas is a key element in the production of nitrogen-based fertilizers. It is the primary feedstock for ammonia, the building block for all nitrogen fertilizers, and accounts for 70–90 percent of production costs. Unsurprisingly, Middle Eastern gas producers looking to move up the value chain have become major producers of fertilizers and typically now account for perhaps a third of global exports.

There would never be a good time for a squeeze in supplies, but for it ...

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