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Serge Labbé: Don’t forget Ukraine — victim of the West’s weakness and indecision

It’s time to give Ukraine the full spectrum of support to change the narrative of an unwinnable war

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Having failed to resolve the Ukrainian-Russian stand-off in the first 24 hours of his second presidency as promised, Donald Trump has not only thrown the world economic system into tariff turmoil, but also plunged the planet into a Middle East quagmire from which he will fail to successfully extract himself, the American people and what allies he still has.

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Through this strategic miscalculation, Trump has precipitated damage to Gulf infrastructure which will take years to remedy, and with little impact on a régime strictly controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Further, in attempting to maintain at least some flow of oil, he is actually financing Russia’s atrocities in Ukraine by temporarily lifting its sanctions on Russian oil, generating some $150 million USD per day for the Kremlin. He has done what he does best — draw temporary attention away from his failings through yet another misguided venture.

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As a result, five years into the Russian war on Ukraine, the West has, up until this point, largely allowed the beleaguered nation to continue to go it alone.

Vladimir Putin has been preying on the West’s weakness, indecision and desire to compromise. Factored in, has been European dependence on Russian oil and natural gas, and the Trump-Putin bromance, he has consistently failed to confront Putin from a position of strength.

My engagements with senior Russian diplomatic and military officials in both Kosovo and Afghanistan have taught me that the only way to exact results is to threaten the use of strong, immediate and credible punitive measures from the outset, thereby ensuring unconditional compliance — not rolling out the red carpet in Alaska.

Putin, his political cronies, the billionaire oligarchs and certain members of the Russian military and security high command — are disdainful of indecision, procrastination and weakness, both in speech and action. And yet, it is precisely what Western allies have repeatedly practiced: indecision, procrastination and weakness — pontificating about what they cannot do rather than what must be done now to save a nation with which the North Atlantic Alliance has a long history.

But why has the West and NATO done so little to curb, contain and remove the threat to world peace and security by this autocrat?

In 2014, Putin managed to annex Crimea and establish the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. The result: he watched the West’s and NATO’s action in the face of adversity: indecision. Our subsequent track record in Afghanistan and Syria proved him right. In the weeks immediately following the Feb. 24, 2022 Russian invasion, the West finally managed to strap together at the last minute a comprehensive regime of sanctions and asset freezes against the Russian Federation, as well as key leaders, oligarchs, the energy sector, banks and businesses. The process has been reactive and ad hoc. We were making it up as we went along.

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Aggressively re-engage with Ukraine and remind ourselves that this is Putin’s war, not that of his suffering people. The West needs to refocus and deliver the sledgehammer blow to Putin by completely alienating him from his support base, eventually causing his entourage of elites to abandon and replace him with a leader intent on working with Europe. It is time to seize, not merely freeze, all the assets of the apparatchiks and oligarchs abroad, dealing them a crippling blow once and for all and, out of desperation, turning them against Putin.

Four years into Russian atrocities in Ukraine, the International Criminal Court (ICC) have opened an investigation for alleged war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. A warrant has been issued for Putin’s arrest, making him an ICC-indicted war criminal and subject to arrest for war crimes related to child deportations/transfers. Western nations must continue to push their respective intelligence agencies with a view to gathering further evidence of war crimes being committed in Ukraine in order to support the ICC in its deliberations to indict, as well as making public statements of their findings. And, given that Russia does not recognize the Court, a special tribunal must be established to ascertain the international crime of aggression against Ukraine.

As a former KGB boss, Putin has spent his life working in a parallel world of lies and deception. He is a master at manipulating the truth to suit his purposes. The West, without lowering ourselves to his level, must conduct aggressive, offensive cyber operations against all elements of Russian national power. Our cyberattacks must be directed at precisely the same sectors Russian hackers have targeted the West in the last 20 years.

Impressively, Canada revoked Russia’s “most-favoured-nation” trade status on March 3, 2022; the U.S. followed suit the following month. Western leaders must stay the course and ensure that the revocation remains in place, stripping the country of basic World Trade Organization rights. Western nations need to ban all exports to Russia and block all, not some, Russian banks from the SWIFT international payments system. Sanctions must also attack Russian soft targets such as the sports and the arts, thereby creating more disenfranchised Russians prepared to turn against a war criminal murdering innocents and destroying their country.

The EU needs to implement a comprehensive plan to phase out all imports of Russian oil as a matter of urgency; and impose a permanent ban on Russian liquified natural gas. It must also threaten both Hungary and Slovakia with trade measures targeting imports of Russian oil through the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline which transits Ukraine. And, the EU must sanction Hungary and Slovakia over their veto on a 90 billion Euro loan to Ukraine. For years, NATO wargames which I have been involved in, have urgently called for the EU to seek alternative pipeline routes from North Africa and the Caucasus, through Turkey and into Europe. Fortunately, there appear to be signs that the EU may possibly wean itself off Russian oil and gas by the end of 2027. But, of course, with the advent of Trump’s “little excursion” against Iran, now into its eighth week, the world faces critical shortages of oil and natural gas — it will only get worse.

Both the US and NATO/EU nations must provide increased donations, not loans, of fighter aircraft and offensive and defensive weapon systems and munitions — inter alia, the U.S. reinstating direct aid to Ukraine. The U.S. and U.K. should consider mentoring senior Ukrainian officers in the conduct of integrated air-land joint operations at brigade level and above — the Ukrainian army is second to none on the conduct of company and battalion level operations but have demonstrated difficulty in synchronizing operations in time and space at the brigade level. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent visit to the Gulf will certainly pay dividends with the signing of historic agreements with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar — securing financial support and investments in exchange for Ukraine’s substantial anti-drone experience.

We must be vigilant. We should not underestimate Putin and comfortably assume that his security forces have overwhlemed themselves in his “special military operation.” For example: The recent reconnaissance of the U.K.’s undersea infrastructure (internet cables and pipelines) by Russian Main Directorate for Deep Sea Research demonstrates the country’s ongoing covert operations against allies.

The ’win-win’ West must not be trapped by Putin’s disingenuous peace and ceasefire overtures and lies; Putin and his negotiators are masters of deceit and manipulation. So, any negotiations must be tripartite — Ukraine-Russia and interlocutor. So far, amateurs Witkoff and Kushner have failed. Now is the time for hardcore, experienced diplomats not cronies appointed through patronage.

And finally, Trump needs to understand the power of allies and coalition building. There are 32 NATO member nations. All 32 need to be consulted in advance of any political or military intervention. Luxembourg has as much of a vote as Canada. I wonder if Trump knows what Luxembourg is, that it is a NATO nation with the same status as the United States.

So rather than pursue a 21st-Century crusade in the name of Christianity in Iran, mishandled by Hegseth, Trump — and the West — need to refocus on bringing an end to the war in Ukraine. Ultimately, it is re-energized support for Ukraine across the spectrum of capabilities which will decide the outcome of the continued war in the beleaguered country.

Putin thinks that he can outlast the West by portraying the war in Ukraine as unwinnable — we need to change that narrative and set the conditions for a positive outcome.

Brigadier General (Ret’d) Serge Labbé served 13 years in 6 NATO headquarters — two tours at NATO Headquarters, Brussels, Joint Command Southeast Izmir, Türkiye, Kosovo Force in Prishtina, Joint Forces Command Brunssum, The Netherlands, and the International Assistance Force Afghanistan.

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